原油庫存引人擔憂 原油價格持續低迷

亞洲交易時間週四早間，原油價格再度下跌，因為供應中斷的問題逐漸解決，供應過剩的擔憂再度出現。

紐約商品交易所，七月交付的輕質低硫原油期貨的成交價為每桶47.92美元，下降了0.16美元。倫敦IEC期貨交易所，七月交付的佈倫特原油跌至每桶48.14美元。

在過去的幾期原油中，原油價格持續低迷，因為加拿大和非洲的供應中斷問題已逐漸解決。加拿大野火尚未完全熄滅，政府已下達了強制撤離的命令，並允許森科能源公司恢複了兩種主要油砂的制造。

利比亞的石油出口也在逐漸恢複。政治動亂導致哈裡蓋港口關閉了兩個多星期，動亂結束後，政府將運出66萬桶原油。

而法國石油工人的罷工潮可能會對石油供應產生一些影響。費時能源集團表示，在八家煉油廠中，有六家出現了供應中斷，這種情況可能會持續72個小時至一週。

費時能源集團還表示：“如果罷工行動繼續進行，法國煉油廠的產量將急劇減少。這樣一來，法國境内受損嚴重的地區將會增加石油產品的進口量，但原油的進口量不會增加。”

雖然加拿大野火和法國工人罷工會影響市場的供應平衡，但是同石油輸出國持續增長的產量相比，這些影響只是暫時的。

隨著OPEC產量的持續增加，分析家們希望非卡塔爾地區的制造商來解決供應過剩的問題。

伯恩斯坦公司高級分析家Neil Beveridge希望在下一季度之前，原油市場能夠轉為供不應求，他希望非OPEC地區的產量降至每天5650萬桶，因為石油需求將由每天120萬桶增至140萬桶。

除此之外，新型石油和天然氣的開採量正在逐漸減少，這也有助於價格的增長。HIS調查公司的結果顯示，2015年石油和天然氣的開採量是64年以來的最低水平，因為油價過低，能源公司紛紛減少勘探量。

紐約商品交易所，六月交付的新配方汽油合約的成交價為每加侖1.6422美元，下跌了34個點。而六月交付的柴油價格為1.4760美元，下跌了15個點。

ICE六月交付的汽油的成交價為每噸438.25美元，較週一下跌了0.5美元。 

Oil prices stay in the doldrums on supply growth concerns

Crude-oil prices were lower in early Asian trade Tuesday, weighed down by concerns of a growing global supply as outages around the world are winding down.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in JulyCLN6, -0.48%  traded at $47.92 a barrel, down $0.16 in the Globex electronic session. July Brent crude LCON6, -0.60%  on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.21 to $48.14 a barrel.

Oil prices have been in the doldrums in the last few sessions on signs that supply disruptions in Canada and Africa are coming to an end. In Canada, while the wildfires aren’t yet completely contained, the authorities have lifted the mandatory evacuation order, allowing Suncor Energy Inc. to resume operations in two major oil-sands production complexes.

Oil exports from Libya are also improving. The country is expected to release a 660,000-barrel cargo after political unrest shuttered the port of Marsa al-Hariga for more than two weeks.

However, the ongoing strike by French oil workers might dent global supply. According to energy consultant FGE, the strike could mean that production outages at six of the country’s eight refineries could last for 72 hours to a week.

“If the strike turns out to be prolonged, with French refinery runs severely reduced, it may lead to higher products imports into the most-affected regions of France, but lower imports of crude,” said FGE.

But while Canadian wildfires and the French strike will affect the market balance, they are only “passing influence” compared with the persistent uptrend in production by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said Tim Evans, a Citi Futures analyst.

As OPEC ramps up production, analysts are counting on non-cartel players to help erode the glut.

“Every indication we have is that the June 2 OPEC summit in Vienna will leave the status quo in place, with Iran still ramping production higher, Saudi Arabia determined to continue competing for market share, and OPEC as a whole left without even a nominal overall production target,” he added.

“It would leave open the possibility that a further increase in OPEC total production will further postpone the anticipated rebalancing of the global market,” said Evans.

Neil Beveridge, senior analyst at Bernstein Research, expects the oil markets to shift into deficit by next quarter as non-OPEC production declines by 1.1 to 1.2 million barrels to 56.5 million barrels a day this year — lower than the 57 million barrels a day forecast by the International Energy Agency.

“We expect oil markets to shift from oversupply to deficit by the third quarter of 2016 as demand continues to grow at 1.2 to 1.4 million barrels a day and non-OPEC supply declines accelerate,” he said.

Moreover, waning volume of new oil and gas discoveries is also likely to prop up prices. According to research firm IHS, oil and gas volumes discovered in 2015 were the lowest in 64 years as energy companies pull back from exploration amid low prices.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for June RBM6, -0.24%  — the benchmark gasoline contract — -fell 34 points to $1.6422 a gallon, while June diesel traded at $1.4760, 15 points lower.

ICE gasoil for June changed hands at $438.25 a metric ton, down $0.50 from Monday’s settlement.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-stay-in-the-doldrums-on-supply-growth-concerns-2016-05-24