供應過剩持續 油價創一週新低

原油中斷的情況逐漸緩解，供應過剩的擔憂再度出現，原油期貨成交價在週一創下了一週新低。

七月交付的西德州中質原油期貨價格下跌33美分，收於每桶48.08美元，是5月16日以來即月合約的最低收盤價。倫敦洲際交易所，七月交付的佈倫特原油期貨價格下跌了37美分，收於每桶48.35美元。

嘉盛及城市指數的技術分析師Fawad Razaqzada認為：“原油價格短期內將處於超買狀態，而當前的供應因素隨時可能消失。”

他說：“得益於最近日的涼爽天氣和降雨，加拿大的野火似乎已得到控制，疏散令已經撤銷，石油工人可以返回了。

Razaqzada說：“當前過剩的原油約有100萬桶/日，如果想回到正常水平，還需要幾個星期。”

北美洲與非洲的原油生產中斷是近來油價大漲的主要原因。上週WTI油價上漲3.3%，但週五卻收跌，原因就是一些供應中斷的問題已得到解決。

上週美國油服巨頭貝克休斯公司公佈的數據也給油價施加了壓力。貝克休斯報告稱，上週美國活躍原油鑽井數量維持不變。分析師稱，油價的上漲趨勢迫使一些美國頁岩油生產商啟動新的專案。

與此同時，美國經濟數據顯示，美聯儲可能在六月會議上加息。ClipperData原油分析師Troy Vincent稱：“這種預期導致美元大漲，從而打壓商品期貨價格。”

交易員也十分關註6月2日在維也納舉行的OPEC會議。

目前市場預測，該組織改變政策或是調整生產配額的可能性很低。

伊朗近來反复強調，他們沒有任何凍產計劃。俄羅斯能源部長Alexander Novak曾表示，石油供應過剩將達到每天150萬桶，2016年的油價將在40美元至50美元之間。

紐約商品交易所，六月交付的汽油收於每加侖1.646美元，上漲了1美分，但六月交付的熱燃油則下跌了1.3美分。

六月交付的天然氣收於2.055美元。

Oil ends at 1-week low as global supply glut persists

Oil futures settled at their lowest level in a week on Monday as concerns surrounding recent disruptions to crude production eased, renewing expectations that global supplies will continue to outpace demand.

West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in July declined by 33 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $48.08 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the lowest settlement for a front-month contract since May 16. July Brent crude LCON6, +1.17%  on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell 37 cents, or 0.8%, to $48.35 a barrel.

Prices appear “overbought in the short term and the impact of temporary supply factors could end at any time,” said Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at Forex.com and City Index.

The wildfires in Canada appear to be under control now thanks to cooler temperatures and rainfall in recent days,” he said. “The evacuation orders have been lifted and oil workers can return.”

But “It could still take a number of weeks to return crude outages of more than 1 million [barrels per day] back to normal levels, meaning the supply deficit from Canada will likely be in place for a while yet,” said Razaqzada.

Supply outages in North America and Africa have been largely responsible for the recent rise in oil prices. WTI oil prices gained 3.3% last week, but finished Friday’s session lower as some supply disruptions subsided.

Prices were also pressured after oil-field services firm Baker Hughes Inc. reported Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. was unchanged last week. Analysts said the uptrend in prices may entice some U.S. shale producers to start new projects.

Meanwhile, U.S. economic data have been pointing to the possibility of an interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve at the central bank’s June meeting. “This has led to a recent rally in the U.S. dollar and [caused] commodities to turn lower,” said Troy Vincent, oil analyst at ClipperData. A strong dollar tends to weigh on dollar-denominated oil prices.

Traders are also looking ahead to a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, set for June 2 in Vienna.

Current expectations are very low for any change in policy or production, said Stuart Ive, a client manager at OM Financial.　　

In other news, Iran recently reiterated that it has no plan to join any production freeze at the upcoming OPEC meeting. Russian energy minister Alexander Novak was also reported to have said he expects global supply to outpace demand by some 1.5 million barrels a day, with a forecast of an average oil price in 2016 at $40-$50 a barrel.

Back on Nymex, June gasoline  ended at $1.646 a gallon, up 1 cent, or 0.6%, while June heating oil  fell 1.3 cents, or 0.8%, to $1.478 a gallon.

June natural gas shed less than a penny to settle at $2.055 per million British thermal units.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-start-week-lower-amid-signals-global-supply-glut-remains-2016-05-23