David Einhorn對黃金價值的看法

 J.B. Maverick 2016年5月21日

像許多其他值得關註的市場分析家一樣，對沖基金經理David Einhorn也對黃金持看漲態度。黃金是其對沖基金Greenlight Capital在2016年前幾個月持有的前五種資產之一。在2016年第一季度給投資者的信中，他指出黃金從每盎司1050美元左右上漲到接近每盎司1300美元，上漲了接近20%，他表示：“我們相信越來越危險的貨幣政策將使黃金價格上漲。”

Einhorn批評歐洲央行推出的包括人為降低利率等不明智貨幣政策增加了資產購買和貸款補貼。他甚至對日本央行的負利率政策未能在很大程度上刺激日本經濟做出了更嚴厲的批評。 最後但是不是最不重要的，他自2008年經濟危機以來就經常指責美聯儲的貨幣政策。他指出，美聯儲已經開始放棄2015年12月的升息決定，Einhorn認為美聯儲的利率正常化在本質上與其多次重申的利率政策主要由就業率和通脹率決定的理論相沖突。就業數據持續改善，在通脹數據上，至少美國政府自己的數據達到了美聯儲2%的通脹目標，但是美聯儲沒有發出在2016年再次加息的信號。

為什麼關註Einhorn

Einhorn是價值投資對沖基金Greenlight Capital的創始人，該對沖基金自1996年成立以來年平均回報率為20%。基金在成立以來經歷了兩年的下降，其中一年是2015年。鑒於該基金的歷史表現，投資者和分析師認為該基金將在2016年強勢反彈。2016年第一季度Greenlight Capital盈利2870萬美元，超過了其2015年第一季度虧損的2400萬美元。Einhorn還是《Fooling Some of the People All of the Time: A Long Short (and Now Complete) Story》的作者，書中記錄他成功做空聯合資本和雷曼兄弟的小故事。

Einhorn與巴菲特對黃金觀點的對比

Einhorn與巴菲特一直以來就黃金價值投資的觀點不和。巴菲特長期以來一直嘲笑黃金的價值，他認為黃金的使用價值有限，工業用途很少且飽受争議，因此黃金幾乎沒有内在價值。巴菲特認為產生利率的公司要比黃金好得多。Einhorn反對說公司獲取的紙幣利潤很容易被視為沒有内在價值。Einhorn指出即使有人獲得了所有美鈔，他也不能長時間持有所有的美元，因為美聯儲可以很容易的印刷更多的鈔票。相比之下，黃金的供應不會因為任何政府或者央行突發奇想的增加。鑒於美元在上世紀失了90%的購買力，Einhorn提出了與黃金相比1美元在100年後還能保留多少價值的問題。

今年黃金的表現

對投資者來說，簡單的事實是截止到2016年第一季度末，Einhorn對黃金的投資看起來是個明智的決定，因為黃金價格上漲了接近20%，相比之下標準普爾500指數的表現卻不盡人意。通過對比發現，截止到2016年5月初，標準普爾500上漲了1%，而廣泛持有的黃金ETF “SPDR Gold Shares ETF”上漲了19.2%。

David Einhorn on the Value of Gold (GLD)

By J.B. Maverick | May 21, 2016 — 10:00 PM EDT

Hedge fund manager David Einhorn, like many other noteworthy market analysts such as Peter Schiff and Louise Yamada, is bullish on gold. It's one of the top five holdings of his Greenlight Capital hedge fund in the opening months of 2016. In his first quarter 2016 letter to investors, the president of Greenlight Capital noted gold's rise from approximately $1,050 to nearly $1,300 an ounce, roughly a 20% gain, stating, "We believe the increasingly adventurous monetary policy is bullish for gold."

Einhorn criticized the aggressive and, in his view, ill-advised monetary policies being pursued by European central banks, policies that include artificially low interest rates, increased asset purchases and borrowing subsidies. He had even harsher words for the Bank of Japan's negative interest rate policy that has largely failed to spur the Japanese economy. Last, but certainly not least, Einhorn excoriated the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank's policy stance, as he frequently has since the 2008 financial crisis. He pointed out that the Fed has already begun backing away from its December 2015 rate hike decision, offering what Einhorn characterizes as rationalizations that essentially contradict the Fed's own oft-repeated statements that its interest rate policy is guided largely by employment and inflation data. Employment figures continue to improve, and inflation, at least by the U.S. government's own numbers, appears to have hit the Fed's 2% target, yet the Fed is no longer signaling any future interest rate hikes for 2016.

Why Pay Attention to Einhorn

Einhorn is founder of the value investing-oriented hedge fund Greenlight Capital, which has served up average annualized returns of 20% to its investors since its creation in 1996. The fund has only experienced two down years in its 20-year history, one of which was 2015. Given the fund's historical performance, investors and analysts expect a strong bounce back by Einhorn in 2016. The first quarter 2016 performance of Greenlight Capital, a $28.7 million profit, more than reversed its first quarter 2015 loss of $24 million. Einhorn is also the author of the book, "Fooling Some of the People All of the Time: A Long Short (and Now Complete) Story," which chronicles his famously successful short sells of Allied Capital and Lehman Brothers.

Einhorn vs. Buffett on Gold

Einhorn has an informal but fairly long-standing feud with famed investor Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.A) over the value of gold as an investment. Buffett has long been on record as deriding the value of gold, pointing out that it has few practical, industrial uses and arguing, therefore, that it has little intrinsic value. Buffett argues that companies generating profits are a much better investment than gold. Einhorn counters by pointing out that the paper money profits of corporate endeavors can easily be viewed as having no intrinsic value. Einhorn notes the fact that even if a person managed to collect every single bill of U.S. currency, he likely wouldn't have all the money in the world for very long, since the Federal Reserve could simply print a few trillion more dollars. In contrast, the supply of gold cannot be increased by the whims of any central bank or government. Referring to the fact that the U.S. dollar has lost roughly 90% of its purchasing power over the last century, Einhorn also raised the question of how much value a dollar may retain 100 years from now as compared to the likely value of gold.

Gold's Year-to-Date Performance

The simple fact for investors as of the end of the first quarter of 2016 is that Einhorn's bullish stance on gold looks like a wise one, given that gold has risen in value approximately 20%, while the Standard & Poor's 500 index (S&P) barely registered a positive number. By way of comparison, as of early May 2016, the S&P 500 was up 1%, while the most widely held gold ETF, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSEARCA: GLD), was up 19.2%.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/insights/052116/david-einhorn-value-gold-gld.asp