MSCI預測樂觀 中國股票出現最高單日漲幅

中國股票很可能在近期加入全球基準行列，因此中國股票在週二出現了兩個月以來的最大漲幅

中國上證指數上漲了2.6%，是三月份以來最高的單日漲幅。深證指數上漲2.8%，創業闆指數上漲3.2%。

再來看亞洲其他地區，日經指數上漲0.7%，韓國綜合指數上漲0.5%，香港恒生指數上漲1.2%。澳大利亞標普ASX 200指數下跌0.2%。

分析家和投資者們一致認為，全球指數供應商MSCI很可能將中國A股納入其新興市場指數。該指數追蹤的資金共計1.7萬億美元。交易員們認為，A股加入MSCI後，將會有數十億資產管理資金流入中國，並擡高股價。

高盛週二表示，中國股市被納入MSCI指數的幾率從50%提升至70%，這點燃了市場情緒。

高盛分析家指出，中國證監會已經解決了投資者最擔心的問題，明確了中國股票的實益所有權，並頒佈了自願停牌的新規。

在MSCI做出決策之前，全球投資者紛紛買入中國股票，香港交易所交易基金報告，週一的淨流入量為20億人民幣（合3.038億美元）。上週的流入量為6億人民幣。

據CSOP資產管理公司統計，這些流量主要來源於大型機構投資者。BOC國際公司分析家Jacky Zhang表示：“這些機構大量買入低價藍籌股。”

中國CSI 300金融指數上漲了2.8%，這與2014年牛市的早期情況極為相似，這一上漲趨勢可能會維持一段時間。

蘇州證券分析師鄧文遠認為：“市場可能會在短期内觸底反彈。”海通國際證券集團銷售交易部總經理Andrew Sullivan表示，中國市場近來的交易量較少。這意味著CSI 300基準指數的股票極易擡高股價。

日本四月的工業產出連續第二個月增加，因而其股票逐漸進入上行區間。今年年初，日本南部發生地震，供應鍊遭到破壞，產量驟減。

今早，日元兌美元的匯率在連續走強之後開始減弱。貨幣疲軟使得日本產品更具競争力，更有利於出口。

China stocks see biggest one-day gain, driven by MSCI speculation

Chinese stocks surged Tuesday in the largest one-day gain in two months, propelled by increased optimism that they may soon be included soon in an influential global benchmark.

In China, the Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, +3.34%  was up 2.6%, the biggest intraday move since March. The smaller Shenzhen Composite Index rose 2.8%, and the tech-focused ChiNext index was up 3.2%.

Elsewhere in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average NIK, +0.98%  was up 0.7%, Korea’s Kospi SEU, +0.83%  was up 0.5%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI, +1.45% was up 1.2%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, -0.54%  was down 0.2%.

Analysts and investors were increasingly expecting that MSCI, the global index provider, will soon add mainland-traded Chinese stocks, so-called A-shares, in its Emerging Markets Index. Funds managing a total of some $1.7 trillion track this benchmark globally. Traders are anticipating that MSCI’s inclusion of A-shares into the index will channel billions in passive asset-management money into China, lifting share prices.

A Goldman Sachs report released Tuesday morning raised the likelihood of the stocks’ inclusion to 70% from 50% during MSCI’s expected decision mid-June, which helped boost market sentiment, traders said.

Goldman Sachs analysts said the China Securities Regulatory Commission appeared to have resolved investors’ concerns about having clear title to Chinese shares that they hold, known as beneficial ownership, and clarified rules about voluntary trading halts that had locked up roughly half the market in last summer’s rout.

In a sign that global investors were rapidly building positions on Chinese stocks ahead of MSCI’s decision, an exchange-traded fund in Hong Kong reported a net new inflow of 2 billion yuan ($303.8 million) on Monday. That followed 600 million yuan of inflows over the past week.

The flows came from large institutional investors, said CSOP Asset Management Ltd., which manages the CSOP FTSE China A50 exchange-traded fund that holds Chinese-listed blue chips.

“The institutions are clearly bargain hunting [for] blue-chips,” saidJacky Zhang, an analyst at BOC International.

The China CSI 300 Financials index soared 2.8%. The surge mirrors the early stages of China’s bull market in 2014, analysts said, suggesting this could just be the start of a prolonged upswing.

“The market may have bottomed out in the short term,” said Deng Wenyuan, an analyst at Soochow Securities.

Trading volumes have been thin in Chinese markets, said Andrew Sullivan, managing director of sales trading for Haitong International Securities Group. That means purchases of stocks heavily weighted in the CSI 300 benchmark, such as financials, can easily move markets higher, he said.

In Japan, shares edged into positive territory after data showed industrial output in April rose for the second month. Production improved from a sharp drop earlier in the year despite earthquake damage to supply chains in southern Japan.

The Japanese yen USDJPY, +0.02%   weakened to 111.12 to the U.S. dollar after a brief period of strengthening in the morning. A weaker currency helps exporters sell their goods at more competitive prices abroad.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-stocks-see-biggest-one-day-gain-on-msci-speculation-2016-05-31