耶倫：美元加息進展順利

美聯儲主席珍妮特·耶倫在週一表示，美國經濟持續回暖，加息可能性繼續增加。

耶倫在費城世界事務理事會上表示：“鑒於勞動力市場環境的進一步改善以及通脹水平的持續提高，我認為是時候逐漸減少貨幣政策調節了。”

耶倫在會上沒有透露下一次加息時機的任何線索，與5月27日的表現大相徑庭。

分析家在耶倫發佈講話之前表示，五月的就業數據疲軟，六月加息的可能性不大，因此七月加息的幾率有所增加。

道瓊斯指數委員會總經理兼主席David Blitzer認為耶倫的潛台詞是：美聯儲不會在六月採取任何行動，七月又該如何則要等待六月的失業報告結果。

他的經濟預測與耶倫在五月發表的觀點有99%是一致的。

他說：“耶倫上一次做好了準備，但這一次沒有。”

耶倫發表講話後，美股大漲。在她講話期間，道瓊斯工業指數跌回開盤水平，但在講話結束後，又回升至17,943點，上漲了136個點。

美聯儲主席表示，五月的就業數據疲軟，使得美聯儲前進的道路步履維艱。五月的疲軟數據超出了她的預期。

她指出了當前經濟面臨的各種不確定性。但她仍然堅持經濟的持續、穩定的增長需要加息的支援。

美聯儲主席說：“雖然近來的經濟增長受到某些反向因素的影響，但我仍然看好就業率的增長，而且持續增加的通貨膨脹會逐漸彌補消極的影響。”

耶倫說，未來的經濟發展充滿了不確定性：國內需求的回升，全球經濟環境以及即將到來的退歐公投，生產力的增長前景，以及通脹將在何時回升至2%。

皮爾龐特證券公司首席經濟學家史蒂夫·斯坦利表示：“雖然耶倫沒有明確表示，但她仍然相信美國的經濟增長足以支援年內的幾次加息。”

美聯儲會議將在6月14日至15日召開。經濟學家們認為，美聯儲會維持年內加息兩次的預測不變。

德意志銀行證券公司首席經濟學家Peter Hooper認為，七月加息幾率增加並不是會議最可能出現的結果。但若六月的就業數據強勢，這是極有可能出現的情況。

他說：“市場預期更傾向於九月和十二月。”

Hooper說：“年內加息兩次是不可能的，若真加息兩次，我會很吃驚的。”

Yellen says U.S. remains on track for more interest-rate hikes

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen on Monday said she expects the U.S. economy will continue to improve and expects further gradual increases in interest rates will “probably” be appropriate.

“I continue to believe that it will be appropriate to gradually reduce the degree of monetary policy accommodation, provided that labor market conditions strengthen further and inflation continues to make progress toward our objective,” Yellen said in a speech to the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia.

Yellen offered no clues on the timing of Fed action in her remarks. She did not repeat the phrase that the Fed would act “in the coming months” that the included in remarks at Harvard University on May 27.

The weak May job report has taken June off the table and has raised doubts about a rate increase in July, analysts said ahead of the Yellen speech.

David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the S&P Dow Jones index committee, said Yellen’s message to the market is that the Fed is not going to do anything in June and she’ll wait for the next unemployment report to decide about July.

Her outlook for the economy is “99% the same” to what it was the last time she spoke in May, he said.

“The last time she was ready for June but this time she’s not,” he said.

U.S. stocks were much higher than they were prior to Yellen’s remarks. During her remarks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.64%  trimmed its morning gains but then came back at the end of her speech to trade most recently up 136 points to 17,943.

The Fed boss said the weak May job numbers raises questions about the outlook that officials “will be wrestling with going forward.” She held out the possibility that the weak May job report was “an aberration.”

She listed several uncertainties facing the economy. But she came down on the side of continued moderate growth that would call for more rate increases.

“Although the economy recently has been affected by a mix of countervailing forces, I see good reasons to expect that the positive forces supporting employment growth and higher inflation will continue to outweigh the negative ones,” the Fed chairwoman said.

Yellen said there were “significant uncertainties” in the outlook: the resilience of domestic demand, global economic conditions and the coming Brexit referendum, the outlook for productivity growth, and how quickly inflation will move back to 2%.

Steve Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities, said Yellen “still believes the economy is on track to dictate a couple of rate increases this year, though of course she was not that specific.”

Fed officials will meet on June 14-15. Economists don’t think the Fed will move away from predictions of two interest-rate hikes this year.

In an interview, Deutsche Bank Securities chief economist Peter Hooper said a July rate increase “is not the most likely outcome” but could move back “front and center” if the June employment report is strong.

“September and December have become the more central expectations” for the market, he said.

 “They certainly are not going to come off predictions of two rate hikes, I’d be surprised if they did,” Hooper added.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/yellen-says-us-remains-on-track-for-more-interest-rate-hikes-2016-06-06