Tim Smith 2016年6月7日
到2016年中國已經成為亞洲最大和世界第二大的經濟體，其GDP總量已經接近11萬億美元。盡管中國2015年6.9%的GDP增長率是25年來的最低漲幅。在美國實行寬松貨幣政策的2007到2015年間，中國經濟經歷了約十年的高速增長。其寬松的貸款政策使其中國借貸和消費增長比發其他達國家更加迅速。相對來說，中國對美國在2004年宣佈實行緊縮的貨幣政策時擔憂較低。因為中國在當時是一個有效的運行著一個相對封閉的經濟的世界上第六大經濟體，，且其貨幣人民幣在當時被低估。經濟快速發展12年之後，中國經濟增長速度開始放緩，且人民幣兌美元和其他主要貿易夥伴的貨幣時價值被高估。在2016年6月初的年度會談中，中國官員將發表對美國在六月加息的可能性和加息可能對中國經濟帶來的影響的看法。
2016年，中國正面臨著更大的全球資本流動和匯率風險。這些風險將在下面進行詳細闡述。
資本外流
利用美國市場低利率更容易借款的環境，中國在過去十年中國經歷了大量的資金流入，但是現在卻正在面臨資金全部撤回的嚴峻現實。此外，借入大量美元的中國企業隨著美聯儲的加息將需要償還更多的貸款。據估計中國2016年的淨資本流出將從2015年的6740億美元下將到5380億美元。如果美聯儲比預期更快的加息，或者將其近期溫和態度改變為強硬態度，人民幣加大的貶值壓力可能會加劇資本外流。
人民幣貶值
中國不允許像美國那樣無限制的金融市場貨幣交易。它限制人民幣兌美元的價值並且把每天交易價格限制在中國人民銀行設定目標的上下2%左右。2015年中國人民銀行對人民幣進行了約3%左右的貶值。2016年5月，中國人民銀行將人民幣兌美元匯率設置到五年來的最低水平，之後人民幣對美元跌入四個月的最低價格。中國央行為了避免出現市場預示的人民持續下跌對人民幣進行了貶值。這一舉動是2015年大量資本外流的主要因素，引起了很高水平的投資者焦慮。事實是中國人民銀行在2015年開始對人民幣實行貶值以避免隨著美元加息引起的人民幣貶值進一步促進資本外流。
總結
美國聯邦儲備銀行在2015年開始實行緊縮貨幣政策，盡管以一個溫和的方式。這使得中國人民銀行處於一個進退維谷的位置，央行需要用人民幣貶值來喚醒出口、刺激經濟，也要用人民幣兌美元的限制來吸引外國投資，所以不得不在這兩者之間找到平衡。然而同時，中國人民銀行意識到隨著中國投資者將資金轉移出中國利用美元加息獲利，人民幣貶值可能加速資本外流。
Is China Getting Nervous About a U.S. Rate Hike?
By Tim Smith | Updated June 7, 2016 — 10:08 AM EDT
As of 2016, China is the largest economy in Asia and the world’s second-largest economy in terms of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) at approximately $11 trillion. Although China’s GDP grew at 6.9% in 2015, this was its lowest growth rate in 25 years. China has experienced approximately a decade of expansion as the United States continued to provide accommodative monetary policy between 2007 and 2015. Access to cheaper capital encouraged lending and consumption in China to propel at a more rapid rate than many of its developed world peers. China was relatively unconcerned when the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank began its tightening cycle in 2004. China was the world’s sixth-largest economy at the time, operating an effectively closed economy, and its currency, the yuan, was undervalued. Fast-forward 12 years, and China has a sluggish economy, an overvalued currency and the U.S. as one of its major trading partners. In early June 2016 annual talks, Chinese officials are set to press their American counterparts about the probability of a June rate hike and consider the likely impact that rising interest rates in the U.S. may have on the Chinese economy.
In 2016, China is now substantially more exposed to global capital flow and currency risks. These risks are examined in further detail below.
Capital Outflows
China experienced substantial cash inflows in the past decade, utilizing U.S. capital markets where it's easier to borrow due to a low rate environment, but it is now facing the harsh reality of a full-scale cash retreat. Additionally, Chinese companies that have borrowed large amounts of U.S. dollars are now facing increased repayments as the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank lifts interest rates. The Institute of International Finance estimated that there was $175 billion in total capital outflows in the first quarter in 2016. It estimates that 2016 net capital outflow is likely to retreat to $538 billion, down from $674 billion in 2015. If the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank increases interest rates more rapidly than expected, or changes its present dovish tone to a somewhat more hawkish tone, capital outflow in China may intensify as the yuan comes under further depreciation pressure.
Yuan Depreciation
China does not let its currency trade unrestricted in the financial markets in the way the U.S. does. It pegs the yuan’s value to the U.S. dollar and restricts trading to a 2% band above or below a daily target set by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). In 2015 the PBOC depreciated its currency by approximately 3%. In May 2016, the yuan fell to a four-month low against the U.S. dollar after PBOC set the fixing rate at its lowest level in five years. The PBOC has devalued its currency in response to its continued rise when market forces suggest it should be declining. This action has been a key contributor to substantial capital outflow in China during 2015, causing an elevated level of investor anxiousness. An argument could be made that the PBOC began devaluing its currency in 2015 in preparation for U.S. rate hikes to avert bigger falls that would accelerate further capital outflows.
The Bottom Line
The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank signaled its intention to begin tightening monetary policy in 2015, albeit in a dovish manner. This left the PBOC in the unenviable position of having to find a balance between trying to reduce the value of its currency to help rejuvenate its exports and stimulate its economy, making it more appealing for foreign investment as its currency was overvalued due to its peg against the U.S. dollar. At the same time however, it is aware that the yuan’s depreciation may contribute to capital outflows as Chinese investors transfer money out of China to take advantage of rising interest rates in the U.S.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/060716/china-getting-nervous-about-us-rate-hike.asp