美油數據疲軟與退歐危機致油價下跌

亞洲交易時間星期四，由於美國原油數據疲軟以及對英國退歐的擔憂，原油期貨價格連續第六個交易日下跌。

在紐約商品交易所，七月交付的輕質低硫原油期貨下跌了1%，跌至每桶47.55美元。在倫敦洲際交易所，八月交付的佈倫特原油下跌了0.8%，跌至48.61美元。

全球油價近來震盪下跌，起因是美國頁岩油產量可能隨著鑽井數量的增加而開始回升。

在6月10日的那一週，美國原油庫存縮減量低於預期，只有93.3萬桶。奧克拉荷馬州庫新碼頭的原油運輸量增加了52.5萬桶。

但原油產量減少了2.9萬桶，跌至每天872萬桶。

法國興業銀行分析家表示：“全球原油的基本面仍呈上升趨勢，今年下半年的全球原油產品受到小幅牽引，但當前的原油市場仍處在規避風險的情緒中。美國週報也無法改變這一狀況。”

投資者們擔心的是，隨著油價的攀升，美國原油制造商會禁不住誘惑，開始大量挖掘新油井，這樣一來，油價暴跌將不再遙遠。

以阿帕奇公司為例，公司以35美元的油價為基準制定了年度預算，但油價已經漲至50美元，公司在帕米亞盆地增加五口鑽井也是合情合理的。

6月23日的退歐公投在即，公衆的緊張情緒推動美元上漲，而石油又與美元密切相關，那麼用外國貨幣交易原油的利潤將大幅縮水。

新加坡華僑銀行分析家Barnabas Gan表示：“雖然聯邦公開市場委員會投票決定維持0.5%的利率不變，但當前市場的基調仍是規避風險。”

某些分析家認為，雖然利率不變會給大宗商品價格提供一定的支撐，但美聯儲的行動如此謹慎，也可理解為他們對美國的經濟增長更加謹慎了。

石油投資者將密切關註貝克休斯公司在明天公佈的美國鑽井數量。行業數據顯示，在過去的兩週中，美國石油鑽井數量呈上升趨勢。

SCI International的能源分析家高健表示：“目前為止，石油市場的基本面仍是主要的價格推動因素。事實上，全球的石油還是太多了。”

在紐約商品交易所，七月交付的新配方汽油合約下跌了51個點，跌至每加侖1.4693美元，而七月交付的柴油則跌至1.4691美元，下跌了87個點。

在洲際交易所，七月交付的汽油的成交價為每噸435美元，較週三下跌了6美元。

Oil under pressure after downbeat U.S. oil data, Brexit worries

Crude oil futures fell for six straight sessions in early Asia trade day Thursday, dragged by a somewhat disappointing U.S. oil data and looming risk of Britain’s departure from the European Union.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in Julytraded at $47.55 a barrel, down $0.46, or nearly 1%, in the Globex electronic session. August Brent crude  on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.38, or 0.8%, to $48.61 a barrel.

Global oil prices have been on a downward streak for days, first pushed down by the prospect that the decline in U.S. shale production since April last year could be reversing as rig counts rise.

In the week ended June 10, U.S. crude stockpiles shrank less than expected, decreasing 933,000 barrels. Stockpiles also grew by 525,000 barrels at the key crude delivery hub of Cushing, Okla.

However, production fell by 29,000 barrels to 8.72 million barrels a day.

“While the outlook for global oil fundamentals remains constructive, with slight global crude and product draws expected in the second half of this year, the current mood in the oil markets is risk averse, and the US weekly report did not do anything to change that,” say analysts at Société Générale.

The apprehension among investors is that as prices climb, more U.S. producers will be lured to drill new wells or complete the ones that were half-way developed before the price plunge.

Apache Corp. , for example, based its budget this year on U.S. oil prices of $35 a barrel, so it is “not unreasonable” to think the company could add five rigs in the Permian basin with oil now near $50, analysts at energy-focused investment bank Simmons & Co. International, part of Piper Jaffray Cos., said in a note Wednesday.

Prices have also been stunted by nervousness regarding the June 23 British referendum on leaving the EU which has buoyed the greenback, making it less profitable for oil traders using foreign currencies as oil is pegged to the dollar.

 “Risk aversion continues to stay on the table, even as the Federal Open Market Committee votes to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.5%,” said Barnabas Gan, an economist at Singapore bank OCBC.

Some analysts say that while keeping interest rates flat may provide some support to commodities prices, the dovish action can also be interpreted as a sign that the Fed is becoming more cautious about U.S. economic growth.

Oil investors will be keeping a close eye on the U.S. rig count report by Baker Hughes Inc. tomorrow. Data by the industry group has showed an uptick in U.S. oil drilling activity for the last two weeks.

“For now, the fundamentals of the oil market will remain as the primary price movers. The fact is the world still has too much oil,” said Gao Jian, an energy analyst at SCI International.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for July  — the benchmark gasoline contract — fell 51 points to $1.4963 a gallon, while July diesel traded at $1.4691, 87 points lower.

ICE gasoil for July changed hands at $435.00 a metric ton, down $6.00 from Wednesday’s settlement.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-under-pressure-after-downbeat-us-oil-data-brexit-worries-2016-06-16