為什麼PIMCO認為中國經濟增長受到限制？

Ryan Downie  2016年6月13日

太平洋投資管理公司（ PIMCO）預測中國2016年的GDP增長率在5.5%到6.5%之間。這一數據高於全球平均水平但是明顯低於中國在過去十年中的增長率。由於需求不足和過剩的財務刺激引起的投資者不安，中國的房地產和資本市場在2014到2016年間經歷了下跌和波動。PIMCO對中國2016年GDP增長率預測不高的原因是出自對房地產市場、主權債務增加、不良貸款增加、股市波動和政策伸展過度的擔憂。

房地產市場

中國的房地產行業是其經濟增長的重要影響因素，在2014年受國内投資的推動占GDP總量的15%以上。房地產行業的強勁表現推動其他行業的增長，例如建築業和基礎材料行業，因此住房和商業建築需求增長的影響是巨大的。中國的房地產行業一直受到政府低利率和寬松貸款政策的大力支持。中國已經在許多地區出現了無人居住的鬼城，這使得人們出現了對供應過剩將威脅房地產行業和整體經濟增長前景的擔憂。

中國房價在2015年出現下降，但是2016年初一線城市房價又開始回升。二三線城市的房價下降還在持續。盡管數據顯示房價的增長不受投機的驅動，但是一些分析人士認為中國房地產投資者資金來自股市流出。PIMCO認為二三線城市的不良表現和庫存壓力足以限制中國房地產行業的增長潛力。這將相對歷史表現來說影響GDP的增長，因為房地產行業在中國經濟中的地位非常重要。

債務

在2007到2015年間中國增加了21萬億美元的債務。債務和GPD比率從2006年32%增長到2015年的43.9%，而GDP增長率卻從15.4%下降到6.7%。由於中國經濟正處於週期性放緩中，政府支出成了GDP增長的重要組成部分，因此目前中國必須多承擔15%的主權債務以實現其GDP增長目標。這還不足以對經濟造成嚴重影響，但是政府影響的加大和邊際收益的遞減將限制經濟上漲的潛力。

不良貸款

2015年中國銀行的不良貸款增長超過了一倍，使不良貸款率達到了1.4%。PIMCO預測這一比率在短期内將繼續增長，而且壓力測試顯示這一數字將會上漲到高達6%。如果想要改變不良貸款持續上漲的趨勢，那麼就需要對中國銀行進行資本重組。不良貸款是一個長期問題，不會在近期對經濟造成影響，但是會影響短期内的政策。這一揮之不去威脅會抑制對經濟增長至關重要的投資行業。

股票市場

中國股票市場在2015年和2016年出現劇烈波動，而糾正政策往往效果不甚理想。股票市場波動往往對實體經濟造成負面影響，因為它能影響投資者信心和消費者情緒。一些投資者可能會撤出資金，導致資本外逃，這將影響經濟增長的潛力。低迷的消費者情緒可能會降低總體需求從而影響經濟增長。為解決股市波動推出的不完善政策也會影響貨幣和限制企業投資。

政策效力

中國政府大量使用貨幣和財政政策解決資本市場缺陷，這使得其他措施的影響減小。貨幣貶值導致資本外流並使利率臨近具有威脅性的阙值。財務刺激導致制造業和房地產行業供應過剩，但是卻不能永久的推動企業和消費者需求。

Why PIMCO Says China's Growth Is Capped

By Ryan Downie | June 13, 2016 — 7:00 AM EDT

PIMCO's forecasts call for 5.5 to 6.5% growth in Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) in 2016. This figure is above the global average but substantially lower than China's performance over the preceding decade. China's real estate and capital markets experienced deceleration and volatility between 2014 and 2016, with concerns about insufficient demand and fiscal overstimulation causing investor discomfort. PIMCO's modest view for China's GDP growth in 2016 is limited to the upside by concerns over the real estate market, rising sovereign debt, growing nonperforming loans, equity volatility and policy overextension.

Real Estate Market

The Chinese real estate industry has been an important factor in the country's economic growth, rising above 15% of GDP in 2014, fueled by high domestic investment. Strong real estate performance stimulates other industries such as construction and basic materials, so the knock-on effects of rising demand for housing and commercial space are substantial. The Chinese real estate market has been heavily supported by a government that has ensured low interest rates and accommodative lending standards. Unoccupied ghost cities in various parts of the country have been well documented, and concerns about excess capacity have threatened the outlook for the real estate market and the entire economy.

Property prices fell in 2015 but rebounded in early 2016 in China's top-tier cities. The slide continued in smaller cities. Some analysts have suggested real estate investments are being funded by capital flowing out of China's equity markets, though occupancy data suggests much of the strength in surging geographies is not being driven by speculation. In PIMCO's view, sluggish performance in smaller cities and inventory overhang are sufficient to limit real estate's potential to modest positive growth. This creates a drag on GDP growth relative to historical performance, because real estate is such an important part of the Chinese economy.

Leverage

China added $21 trillion in debt between 2007 and 2015. While the sovereign-debt-to-GDP ratio climbed from 32% in 2006 to 43.9% in 2015, GDP growth fell from 15.4% to 6.7%. Government spending has become an important element of GDP growth as the Chinese economy experiences cyclical slowdown, so the country would have to take on roughly 15% more sovereign debt to achieve its GDP targets at the current rate. Leverage is not high enough to represent a serious threat to economic well-being, but the expanding role of government and diminishing marginal returns limit upside potential.

Nonperforming Loans

Nonperforming loans (NPL) in Chinese banks more than doubled in 2015, bringing the reported NPL ratio to 1.4%. PIMCO expects this figure to increase over the medium term, and stress tests suggest this figure could climb as high as 6%. If these downside scenarios are realized, it could require recapitalization of Chinese banks. NPLs are long-term problems and do not represent an imminent threat in the current cycle, but could influence policy in the short term. This lingering threat can also inhibit investment, which is important for sustained growth.

Equity Market

Chinese equities were highly volatile in 2015 and 2016, and corrective policy often lacked efficacy in response. Stock market volatility can be harmful in the real economy when it impacts investor confidence or consumer sentiment. Uncertain investors can withdraw their assets from an economy, resulting in capital flight, which limits growth potential. Poor consumer sentiment reduces aggregate demand and can be a drag on economic growth. Poorly conceived policy designed to address equity volatility can also impact currency and stifle business investment.

Policy Efficacy

Monetary and fiscal policy have already both been heavily used by China to address economic and capital market inadequacies, and the marginal effects of additional actions are diminished. Sweeping currency depreciation measures led to capital outflow and pushed interest rates closer to theoretical efficacy thresholds. Fiscal stimulation contributed to excess capacity in some manufacturing or real estate categories, and there are fears that true demand from businesses and consumers cannot be simulated indefinitely.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/061316/why-pimco-says-chinas-growth-capped.asp