Trevir Nath 2016年6月17日
現在距離英國退歐公投還有不到一週時間，公投將決定英國在歐盟的去留。在經濟學家和政治學家讨論公投的是非曲直時，投資者則要面對公投帶來的極其不確定的影響。雖然留在歐盟不能解決英國的任何問題，但是離開歐盟可能引發國際危機。
很簡單，如果英國退出歐盟將會破壞許多已經建立的貿易關系。英國需要在36個貿易協定和成千上萬的關稅下重新談判進入其他市場。與此同時，英鎊將隨著短期内生產力的降低而對其他主要貨幣下跌。英國退歐公投對金融市場的影響是一個巨大的問號。只要我們密切關註英國退歐，現在為這一事件在投資組合中做出準備還不太晚。
外匯市場
自從英國退歐的想法在2015年末浮出水面，英鎊對其他主要貨幣就接連下跌。英國不願意改變利率使英鎊進一步下跌。如果公投成功那麼接下來一定會出現對英鎊快速而猛烈的抛售。雖然這不會影響到該地區的旅遊業，但是卻不是投資者希望看到的。如果持有大量資金還不是最壞的情況，那麼其貶值的影響則會非常巨大。貨幣的不利因素可能對從貿易和公司盈利到股票市場的任何方面產生負面影響。美元已經準備在今年加息，一旦英國退歐成功，美元的價值可能會進一步上漲。
怎樣進行投資
在我們可以預見的波動中，投資者可以在退歐公投中採用多種方式盈利。經濟學家擔心如果退歐公投成功可能引起至少兩年的市場波動。最簡單的策略是根據不確定性進行對沖。這一策略能使投資者在短期中獲利。一個例子是可以對追蹤主要市場的指數基金或者ETF進行每日或者每月對沖。對於投資歐洲股票的投資者來說，不要在英鎊上冒險，你應該關註MSCI EMU指數。這一ETF追蹤一籃子歐洲藍籌股，將能保護你受到下跌趨勢的影響。同時，國内投資者可能會看到FTSE 100價值的上升。因為FTSE 100的70%成員在全球運營，貨幣不利因素可能會增加他們的收入和盈利，因此可能會擡高股價。
我們也能在特定的市場闆塊中獲利，包括旅遊業、能源和服務業。旅遊業一定會從疲軟的貨幣中受益，而能源生產商可以脫離歐盟昂貴的政策。另一方面，對長期投資者來說，可以買入並持有那些受影響最嚴重的闆塊。
要避免什麼
不幸的是，如果退歐公投成功將會在短期能產生嚴重的影響。雖然一部分精明的投資者能夠獲利，但是大多數投資者可能會遭受嚴重損失。例如FTSE 250 等市場指數的投資者可能經歷大幅度下跌。由於這些指數由小公司和進口商組成，將會受到英鎊疲軟的負面影響。疲軟的英鎊將會壓低一些產業資產的美元價值，例如非必要消費品行業和建築業。這些行業可能受到消費者在面臨不確定性時推遲消費決定的影響。此外，貨幣負面影響也會使大宗商品更加昂貴，同時也使英國投資者投資外國股票的成本更加昂貴。
債券市場也可能受到影響。外國投資者會首先產生恐慌，開始抛售英國政府債券和國債。英國和德國十年期國債的收益率在今年初的增加可能就是受到某些英國退歐不確定性的影響。英國退歐對歐元區也不是個好消息，這可能發出歐盟崩潰的信號。追蹤歐元區股票的道瓊斯歐洲斯托克50指數將可能大幅下跌，而小型股將受到的影響將最為嚴重。
總結
當前的感覺是英國將投票留在歐盟。然而，如果事情發生變化並且最終英國退出歐盟，那將會產生直接的影響。市場可能會迅速做出反應，迫使投資者做出相對的反應。因此，投資者應該確保他們自己的預測結果反映在當前採用的投資策略中。
If Brexit Occurs Here's How You Should Invest
By Trevir Nath | Updated June 17, 2016 — 10:40 AM EDT
We are less than a week away from the anticipated EU referendum, which will decide whether Britain stays or leaves the European Union. As economists and politicians argue the merits of the outcome, investors have bared the burden of coping with the extra uncertainty the vote carries. While staying doesn’t necessarily solve any of the nation's troubles, leaving has the potential to spark an international crisis.
Quite simply, a vote to leave would undermine many of the established trade relationships in place. The UK would need to renegotiate its access to other markets covered by 36 trade agreements and thousands of tariff lines. Meanwhile, the sterling would continue to slide against other major currencies while productivity will decline in the short term. The Brexit's effects on the financial markets is a larger question mark. While we are on the heels of the Brexit, it’s not too late for investors to prepare their portfolios in the event of a Brexit.
The Foreign Exchange Market
Since the thought of a Brexit surfaced in late 2015, the sterling has suffered with respect to other major currencies. The United Kingdom’s reluctance to change interest rates have been partly responsible for pushing the currency lower. A vote to leave would surely be accompanied by a quick and ferocious sell-off. While this won’t be bad for tourism in the region, investors will not be pleased. If having a large cash position wasn’t bad enough, making it less valuable will have widespread effects. Currency headwinds can adversely impact anything from trade and corporate earnings to the stock market. For investors seeking a position in the FX market, the U.S. dollar could be a safe bet. The dollar is already poised to pop when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates later this year and in the event of a Brexit, its value could jump even further.
How To Invest
For the volatility we could expect to see there are a number of positions investors can take to profit given a Brexit. Economists fear a vote to leave the union could generate at least two years of volatility. The simplest strategy might be to hedge your current positions against the uncertainty. This strategy could benefit investors with a short-term horizon. One example is mainstream index funds or ETFs that track major markets and are either hedged daily or monthly. For investors wanting to carry on investing in Eurozone equities, but don’t want the risk around the pound, you could look at the MSCI EMU index. The ETF tracks a basket of large cap Eurozone blue chips stocks which can protect you from some of the downside risks. Meanwhile, domestic investors could see the FTSE 100 increase in value. With over 70% of FTSE 100 members operating globally, currency headwinds are likely to increase earnings and revenue, thereby increasing share prices
Certain sectors could also benefit, including tourism, energy, and the services industry. The tourism industry would certainly benefit from a weak currency while energy-intensive manufacturers can operate independently of the European Union’s expensive policies. Long-term investors, on the other hand, are presented with an opportunity to buy low and hold on sectors that have been most affected.
What to Avoid
Unfortunately, a vote to leave would have severe short-term ramifications. While the savviest investors will benefit, the majority will likely suffer. Investors in market indexes like the FTSE 250 will experience a large drop-off. Since the index is comprised of small companies and exporters, it will be adversely impacted by sterling weakness. A soft pound would depress the dollar value of British assets in sectors such as consumer discretionary and homebuilding. These sectors are likely to suffer as consumers postpone spending decisions in the face of uncertainty. Additionally, currency headwinds would make commodities more expensive but also make it costlier for British investors to buy foreign equities.
The bond market could also suffer. Foreign investors might panic at first, initiating a run on U.K. government bonds or gilts. The spread between ten-year yields on British gilts and German bunds have increased since the start of the year, likely pricing in some Brexit uncertainty. A Brexit will also be bad for the Eurozone, signaling a possible collapse of the union. The Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 index, which tracks Eurozone equities, would fall sharply in this event with small caps hit hardest.
The Bottom Line
The current sentiment is that the United Kingdom will vote to stay in the European Union. However, if things change and leaving is the final outcome, there would be immediate ramifications. The market would likely respond poorly thereby forcing investors to react accordingly. Investors should, therefore, be sure that their own forecasts of the outcome are reflected in the investment strategy they currently adopt.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/061716/if-brexit-occurs-heres-how-you-should-invest.asp