英國退歐會對美國投資者產生怎樣的影響

  Tim Smith   2016年6月16日

英國將在6月23日進行公投決定是否退出歐盟。這一事件受到主流媒體的高度關註。關於英國去留的問題在英國國內產生了激烈的爭論，更使去留結果很難預測。前倫敦市長Boris Johnson是英國退出歐盟的主要支援者。支援英國留在歐洲的人主要有英國首相卡梅倫、著名的跨國企業以及工業領導人和美國總統奧巴馬。

如果英國公投最終決定離開歐盟，其歐盟成員身份的結算時間也不可能是2018年之前。英國必須在打算退出之前提前兩年通知。盡管可以通過談判提前退出，但是這不太可能發生，因為所需要的通知期限是為了重新構建與歐盟和包過美國在內的其他重要貿易伙伴的貿易關係。

如果退歐公投成功，那麼可能會產生一個巨大不穩定時期，因為之前沒有出現過先例。這一不確定性將會對英國和其歐盟貿易伙伴產生巨大影響。如果退歐成功，可能會使蘇格蘭重新燃起退出英國留在歐盟的興趣。英國退歐公投也可能成為其他歐盟國家舉行公投決定是否留在歐盟的先例。 

雖然有很多關於英國退歐對英國和其他歐盟成員關係的讨論，但是幾乎沒有關於英國退出歐盟對美國投資者影響的讨論。 

影響

多年來美國公司在英國各個領域進行了大量投資。自2000年以來英國子公司利潤占美國公司全球子公司利潤的9%。僅在2014年，美國公司在英國的投資總額高達1530億美元。英國在美國公司的資產管理、國際銷售和研發等基础設施發展中占有至關重要的地位。美國公司把英國視為接觸更廣泛歐盟市場的一個大門。英國退出歐盟可能會影響許多這樣美國公司子公司的收益，他們可能會重新考慮在英國和歐盟成員國的經營。

投資歐洲銀行和信貸市場的美國投資者可能受到信貸危機的影響。如果英國最終退出歐盟，歐洲銀行需要更換1230億美元的證券。此外，英國債務可能不會再包含在歐洲銀行的緊急現金儲備中，這將產生流動性問題。歐洲證券資產自2007年開始下降，如果英國公投決定退出歐盟，這一資產下跌情況可能會加劇。

2016年英國退歐公投之前，英鎊兌美元一直處於疲軟狀態。如果退歐公投成功這一情況可能會加劇。如果英國退歐成功可能會把英鎊兌美元的疲軟傳染給歐元。英鎊和歐元疲軟可能會影響對歐盟和英國進行出口的美國公司的盈虧，因為美國產品和服務的成本會上升，這將影響需求。 

總結 
對英國退歐的民意測驗顯示，投資者需要關註在英國和歐盟經營的美國公司。特別需要關註的是投資歐盟信貸市場的公司和產皮銷售會受到利率密切影響公司，例如美國出口商。 

如果英國公投結果決定退出歐盟，市場可能因為不確定性出現短期的過度反應。美國投資者受到的影響需要在新的貿易和信貸協議出現之後才能確定，這需要花費一段時間。投資者必須在英國退歐事件進展期間保持謹慎。

How the Brexit Could Affect U.S. Investors

By Tim Smith | June 16, 2016 — 10:00 AM EDT

On June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom is going to hold a referendum to decide if it will leave the European Union. This possible event has been dubbed the British Exit, or Brexit, by the mainstream media. There is acrimonious debate within Britain about the vote, with the stay-or-leave outcome on a knife's edge.Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London, is a prominent supporter of a Brexit. The stay vote is being led by British Prime Minister David Cameron, along with prominent multinationals and leaders of industry, as well as U.S. President Barack Obama.

If Britain comes to a unanimous decision to leave the European Union, the actual date of cessation of membership is unlikely to be before 2018. The United Kingdom must give two years' notice of its intention to exit. Although an earlier exit could be negotiated, it is unlikely, as the notice period is required in order to forge future trading relationships with the European Union and other affected trading partners, including the United States.

If the Brexit vote is successful, it is likely to create a period of substantial uncertainty, as there is no clear precedent to follow. The uncertainty would also have a critical impact on U.K. and EU trading partners. If a Brexit occurs, it may renew Scotland's interest in pursuing a break from Britain for the opportunity to remain in the European Union. A Brexit may also set a precedent for other European Union states holding referendums on their membership in the European Union.

Although there is a raging debate regarding a Brexit in Britain and among European Union members, there is little discussion on how a British vote to leave the European Union may impact U.S. Investors.

Impact

Companies in the U.S. across a wide variety of sectors have made large investments in the United Kingdom over many years. American corporations have derived 9% of global foreign affiliate profit from the United Kingdom since 2000. In 2014 alone, U.S. companies invested an aggregate total of $588 billion into Britain. Output of U.S. affiliates in the United Kingdom was $153 billion in 2013. The United Kingdom plays a vital role in corporate America's global infrastructure from assets under management (AUM), international sales and research and development (R&D) advancements. American companies have viewed Britain as a gateway that provides exposure to the broader European Union. A Brexit would jeopardize the affiliate earnings of many of these companies that are strategically aligned with the United Kingdom, which may see them reconsider their operations with British and European Union members.

American companies and Investors that have exposure to European banks and credit markets may be affected by credit risk. If the vote for a Brexit eventuates, European banks may have to replace $123 billion in securities. Furthermore, U.K. debt may not be included in European banks' emergency cash reserves, creating liquidity problems. European asset-backed securities have been in decline since 2007; if Britain votes to leave the European Union, it is likely the decline would intensify.

The British pound has experienced weakness against the U.S. dollar in 2016, ahead of the Brexit. This is likely to be accentuated if the leave vote is successful. A vote for the Brexit would see a likely contagion depreciation of the euro. A weaker British pound and euro may hurt the bottom line of U.S. export companies doing business with customers in the United Kingdom and European Union, as the cost for American products and services would increase, tempering demand.

The Bottom Line

As Britain goes to the polls to vote for or against a Brexit, investors need to watch U.S. companies that are exposed to markets in the United Kingdom and the European Union. They need to pay particular attention to companies with exposure to the European credit markets and those that have sales affected by exchange rates, such as U.S. Exporters.

If Britain votes for a Brexit, the markets may see a short-term overreaction due to uncertainty surrounding the event. Ramifications facing U.S. investors are likely to take time to ensue, as new trade and credit agreements emerge. Investors must remain prudent as developments regarding a Brexit continue.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/061616/how-brexit-could-affect-us-investors.asp