匯率操控會影響普通投資者的五個原因

 Ryan Downie 2016年6月17日

美國財務部發佈的2016年上半年報告中，中國、日本、韓國、臺灣和德國被列入了可能違反公平匯率政策的監控名單中。名單中的國家保證加強審查以確定是否進行了利率操控提供不公平的貿易優勢。如果確認這些貿易伙伴違反了公平貿易實踐指南而且沒有糾正這些行為，那麼將會實行貿易懲罰措施。

當實施貨幣政策，尤其是改變全球外匯市場的政策時會發生匯率操控。當為了維護某些特定產業的人為競爭優勢而採取這些行為時被認為是不正當的貿易行為。最常見的情況是人為提供一個國家的貨幣供應以支援其出口行業。在其他條件不變的情況下，貨幣貶值使一個國家的出口商品價格在所有國家下降，從而增加這些商品的國外需求。這可以刺激制造和基础材料等行業的發展，從而刺激全國經濟增長。

美國公司的財務業績

美國公司的財務業績會受到匯率操控的巨大影響。當其他國家不公平的進行貨幣貶值，美國出口商在這些國家市場的競爭力就會下降，而這些國家出口商在美國市場則獲得優勢。美國公司發現越來越難在價格上與國外同業者競爭。即使存在競爭優勢，這些因素還是會影響到企業的基本面。

對美國跨國公司來說，以外幣計價的銷售比例往往高於以外幣計價的成本的比例。匯率操控會使美國公司的利潤降低，因為如果成本不降低的話同樣的銷售量會降低利率。這一情況還迫使企業管理團隊發佈非官方調整數據控制波動。

散戶投資者也會受到影響。美國投資者持有約75%以上的美國股票，因此當美國公司失去競爭優勢時投資者也會受到威脅。貨幣不利因素抑制收益率時會使企業失去盈利能力，限制資金流動和對股息和股息上漲產生壓力。調整後的數據和大型貨幣扭曲會使基本面研究變得複雜，給非專業人士帶來額外的障礙。

美國經濟現狀

這些影響企業財務業績的因素也會產生一系列的經濟問題。21世紀初，中國的匯率操控使美國每年遭受幾千億美元的貿易逆差，這給就業帶來了負面影響。經濟政策研究所估計2001年到2013年間的中國貨幣貶值造成了美國320萬人的失業。匯率操控使生產商和基础材料供應商業務擴展緩慢或者幹脆在減少，因為他們在和外國同行的競爭中處於不利地位。這還會影響對經濟增長有至關重要影響的工資和可支配收入的增長。

對美國人來說，疲軟的經濟會抑制投資並減少投資收入，因為投資者在不確定時期都會變得相對保守。對經濟穩定性的威脅使美聯儲在2016年初做出了延遲加息的決定。低利率影響債券價格，這會迫使退休儲蓄者參加更高風險混合收入證券以達到理想的退休收入。

資本流動

全球資本市場會受到利率操控的影響，所以匯率操控的影響遠遠不止貿易平衡和出口競爭。當外國貨幣相對美元貶值，投資者通常會在其他市場尋求更高的回報，美國股票市場成為這些逃離資本的受歡迎的目的地。一些經濟學家指出，日圓是美國股票市場上漲或者下跌的重要指標，因為日圓升值將意味著投資匯報的上升。1995年到2015年間外國企業名下的美國公司的比例穩定上升，在這期間外國持有的美國企業債券也同樣在增加。外國貨幣貶值影響國內市場對美國產品的需求，這可能會在美國引起市場泡沫。

5 Reasons Why Currency Manipulation Matters for Average Investors

By Ryan Downie | June 17, 2016 — 11:00 AM EDT

The U.S. Treasury Department released a semi-annual report in April 2016 in which China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Germany were placed on a monitoring list as potential violators of fair currency practices. Countries on the list warrant enhanced scrutiny to determine if they are engaged in currency manipulation, which is monetary policy that provides an unfair trade advantage. Trade penalties could ensue if it is determined that a major trade partner violates fair practice guidelines and does not rectify any of these policies.

Currency manipulation occurs when monetary policy is implemented specifically to alter a currency in global foreign exchange markets. These policies are considered unfair trade practices when they are designed to maintain an artificial competitive advantage for a certain industry in the offending country. The most common incidence involves artificially raising the supply of an economy's tender to support its export industry. All else being equal, currency devaluation makes the exports from an economy cheaper in all other economies, thereby increasing demand for these products abroad. This can stimulate sectors such as manufacturing or basic materials, sending positive results throughout the wider domestic economy.

U.S. Corporate Financial Results

The financial results of corporations based in the United States can be impacted significantly by currency manipulation. When foreign countries devalue their currencies unfairly, exporters in the U.S. become less competitive in foreign markets, and foreign exporters gain an advantage in U.S. markets. American companies find it increasingly difficult to compete with foreign peers on a price basis. These factors also threaten business fundamentals, even if a competitive advantage is maintained.

The proportion of foreign-denominated sales tends to be higher than the proportion of foreign-denominated expenses for multinational corporations based in the U.S. Currency manipulation creates a scenario in which corporate operating profits are reduced, because the same volume of sales will now result in lower top-line results without a corresponding decrease in expenses. Such conditions also prompt corporate management teams to publish unofficial adjusted figures that control for fluctuations.

Retail investors suffer as a result. American investors hold roughly more than 75% of U.S. equity shares, so investors are jeopardized when American companies lose their competitive advantage. Lost profitability due to currency headwinds dampens earnings yields, limits cash flows and creates downward pressure on dividends and dividend growth. Adjusted figures and large currency distortions can complicate the fundamental research process, creating additional barriers for non-professionals.

U.S. Economic Well-Being

The same forces that impact corporate financial results can snowball into general economic problems. Chinese currency devaluation inflated the average annual U.S. trade deficit by several hundred billion dollars throughout the early 21st century, which had a negative effect on employment. The Economic Policy Institute estimates that Chinese currency devaluation cost 3.2 million American jobs between 2001 and 2013. Manufacturers and suppliers of basic materials tend to expand slowly or even contract due to currency manipulation, because they are at a competitive disadvantage against their foreign counterparts. This can also impact the growth of wages and disposable income, which are essential to healthy economic growth in developed economies.

A weak economy can stifle investment and reduce the investable income earned by Americans, as investors tend to become more conservative in times of uncertainty. Threats to economic stability contributed to the Federal Reserve's decision to delay interest rate moderation early in 2016. Low rates impact bond prices, and retirement savers continue to be pushed toward higher-risk fixed-income securities to achieve desirable yields for retirement income.

Capital Flows

Global capital markets are impacted by currency manipulation, so the impacts extend beyond trade balance and export competitiveness. When foreign currencies depreciate relative to the dollar, investors often seek better returns in other markets, and U.S. equities markets are popular destinations for that displaced capital. Some economists have noted that the Japanese yen is a leading indicator of U.S. equity market peaks and troughs, with improving yen strength indicating repatriation of gains. The proportion of U.S. equities owned by foreign entities rose steadily from 1995 to 2015, and foreign holdings of U.S. corporate debt securities also trended upward during that period. Depreciation of foreign currency influences demand for American assets, which can cause bubbles in U.S. Markets.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/061716/5-reasons-why-currency-manipulation-matters-average-investors.asp