耶倫：退歐危機重重 加息政策謹慎

美聯儲主席耶倫表示，英國退歐等各類經濟事件引發了全球市場動蕩，因此美聯儲將採取謹慎的貨幣政策。

耶倫在參議院銀行委員會上表示：“今年勞動力市場和經濟增長極不穩定，因此國内的需求可能也是強弩之末。”

耶倫說：“全球經濟的缺陷仍在。”

耶倫表示：“英國退歐公投會對全球經濟產生巨大的影響。”但她並未給英國投票者提出任何建議。英國將在週四投票決定是否退出歐洲，而投票的預期結果則轉變了多次。

耶倫指出，中國也面臨著“巨大的挑戰”，中國將告別出口導向型經濟。

全世界的投資者們都十分活躍，放眼全球，多個國家的經濟增長緩慢、通脹率低、貨幣政策可調，因此投資者們可能會毫無徵兆地改變風險偏好。

在耶倫證詞的獨立報告中，美聯儲告知參議院調查組，“可調節”才是真正的金融缺陷。而英國退歐等外部沖擊可能會極大地影響金融市場的穩定性。

在上週的會議中，美聯儲連續第四次推遲美元加息，這表明美聯儲的加息步伐要遠慢於市場預期。

耶倫在會後的新聞發佈會上表示，英國退歐公投是美聯儲陷入困境的原因之一。英國將在週四進行退歐公投。

金融市場對耶倫的證詞毫無反應。美聯儲觀察員表示，耶倫的觀點與幾週前的觀點一致。

依據CME集團的美聯儲觀察工具，金融市場認為美聯儲不會在十二月之前加息。

道瓊斯工業指數漲至17,829，上漲了24個點。

“謹慎”是耶倫的關鍵詞。

直到六月初，美聯儲議員們一直在要求加息。但是疲弱的就業數據讓他們偃旗息鼓。很多經濟學家認為加息可能會推遲到九月。

上週，17名美聯儲官員中有6名認為2016年僅會加息一次。而去年預測將有4次加息。

美聯儲相信經濟增長的阻力終將消退，未來的加息將應勢而行。耶倫認為年内美國出現經濟衰退的可能性“極低”。

美聯儲相信勞動力市場的疲軟是暫時的。

但這種樂觀情緒也是會變的。

耶倫指出，羅伯特·戈登帶領的傑出經濟學家團隊擔心低迷的生產力增長會持續很長時間，從而抑制美國經濟增長。

耶倫向參議員表示，即使再度出現經濟危機，她也不會重新採取負利率政策。

耶倫表示：“我認為我們不一定非要調節利率，即使真的需要，負利率也不在我們考慮之内。”因為美聯儲調查員已經發現了負利率政策的重大缺陷。

前明尼阿波利斯聯儲主席、現任羅切斯特大學教授Narayana Kocherlakota是鴿派的主要帶頭人，他認為耶倫的立場有誤。

美聯儲主席只是在小心翼翼地請求國會對“極低”的生產率加以挽救。

耶倫說：“我不會給你明確的指示，這是國會該考慮的事情。”

耶倫表示，很多經濟學家們認為公共投資、勞動力發展以及技術研發是影響生產率的主要因素，因此這些問題該由國會來解決。

美國經濟複蘇步履維艱，很多經濟學家們都很困惑，為什麼當前的經濟增長與以往經濟衰退後的複蘇不太一樣。

Fed’s Yellen says risks that include Brexit justify cautious interest-rate policy

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said risks facing the economy — including a possible “Brexit” vote in Europe that could shake up global markets — justify a cautious policy approach.

In testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, Yellen said “mixed readings on the labor market and economic growth this year” suggests domestic demand might falter.

“Vulnerabilities” in the global economy also remain, she said.

“A U.K. vote to exit the European Union could have significant economic repercussions,” Yellen said, although she later said she wasn’t giving British voters any advice. The U.K. faces an in/out decision on European Union membership this Thursday and polls have shifted more than once.

China is also facing “considerable challenges” moving away from an export-led economy, she noted.

Investors around the world are jumpy and “appetite for risk can change abruptly” given the current global environment of “sluggish growth, low inflation and already very accommodative monetary policy” seen in many countries, Yellen said.

In a separate report that accompanied Yellen’s testimony, the Fed told the Senate panel that financial vulnerabilities were “moderate.” 

However, a number of possible external shocks, including the so-called Brexit, “could pose risks to financial stability.”

Last week, the Fed decided not to raise U.S. interest rates for the fourth straight meeting and indicated that future increases would most likely occur at a slower pace than markets previously thought.

At a press conference following that decision, Yellen said the Brexit vote was one factor holding the Fed at bay. The U.K. will vote on Thursday on the Brexit referendum.

Financial markets had little reaction to Yellen’s testimony. Fed watchers said her message essentially repeated what she had told reporters last week after the policy meeting.

Financial markets don’t think the Fed will raise rates until December, according to the CME Group FedWatch tool.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 24 points to 17,829.

Like her press conference, caution was the watchword for the Fed chairwoman.

Until early June, many Fed officials were pressing for a rate hike this summer. But the weak job report for May released on June 3 changed the outlook. The Labor Department reported only 38,000 jobs were created in the month. Many economists believe the report has most likely put off any interest rate hike by the central bank until September.

Last week, the Fed revealed that six of the 17 Fed officials now see only one rate hike in 2016. This is down from four hikes predicted as recently as late last year.

In the bigger picture, Yellen said the Fed is confident that headwinds holding back the economy will “slowly fade over time” and further gradual increases in interest rates are likely to be needed.

Yellen said the chances of a recession in the U.S. this year “are quite low.”

The Fed believes that the weakness in the labor market is “transitory,” she said.

But even this optimism was tempered.

She noted that some prominent economists led by Robert Gordon, a professor at Northwestern University, are worried that recent slow productivity growth could persist, holding down U.S. economic growth.

In her comments to the Senators, Yellen backed away from using negative interest rates as a policy tool to combat any recession.

“We don’t think we are going to have to provide accommodation and if we do [negative rates] is not something on our list,” Yellen told the committee, adding Fed researchers had found “significant shortcomings in that type of approach.”

Former Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota, now a professor at the University of Rochester who was a leading dove on the central bank, tweeted he thought Yellen’s stance was a mistake.

The Fed chairwoman only gingerly asked Congress for help to boost “very low” worker productivity.

“I am not going to give you detailed instruction; this is up to Congress to decide,” Yellen said.

She noted that public investment, workforce development and the pace of technological progress are widely seen by economists as factors that could influence productivity and “should be on Congress’ list to focus on.”

Extremely weak productivity growth since the U.S. recovery began has confounded economists and helps explain why growth has not been as strong as is usually the case after a recession.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-yellen-says-brexit-could-have-significant-economic-repercussions-2016-06-21