Thom Tracy 2016年6月23日
在支持留在歐盟的英國議員 Jo Cox被槍殺使英國退歐的可能性降低之後，全球股市在2016年6月20日經歷了巨大的單日漲幅。盡管如此，愛爾蘭立法者還是評估了英國退出歐洲對愛爾蘭經濟的影響，因為愛爾蘭和她東邊的這個鄰居在貿易和勞動力上有非常嚴重的互相依賴。
二戰結束不久之後建立的歐盟是一個包含28個國家的經濟和政治團體，其中19個國家把歐元當作統一貨幣。雖然2015年愛爾蘭的進口和國内支出增加使其國内生產總值（GDP）增長了7.8%，英國退出歐盟將將對愛爾蘭產生巨大影響。歐元疲軟促進了美國在愛爾蘭的藥物和技術的投資和愛爾蘭的出口，幫助了GDP增長。但是GDP的真正增長很難實現，因為該國大部分財富是以股東利潤的形式產生的。
貿易影響
出口到英國的貨物占愛爾蘭總出口量的三分之一。英國退歐可能使其與歐洲鄰居之間的關稅增加，使出口更加昂貴。隨之而來的影響將是愛爾蘭對英國出口的產品和服務減少，使愛爾蘭不得不降低對向英國出口的依賴。英國退歐也可能使英國經濟增長放緩，這同樣會影響愛爾蘭經濟。受歐盟和英國重新建立貿易協議的影響，預計英國從愛爾蘭的進口量將下降21.6%，出口也將下降3.3%。
勞動力影響
愛爾蘭和英國之間的勞動力出口很大程度上決定了經濟的健康程度。在2011到2013年間，隨著愛爾蘭國内的失業率上漲，大約有6萬的愛爾蘭公民到英國工作。共同旅遊區的建立使愛爾蘭勞動力流入英國，這個政策可能因為英國退出歐盟而被終止。兩國之間勞動力自由流動的限制將會給愛爾蘭工資增長帶來壓力，因為將會有更多的人競争更少的職位。據預測熟練工人工資將下降5%，非熟練工人工資將下降4%。超過40萬愛爾蘭人居住在英國，英國退歐將可能因為勞動力自由流動的關閉對這些人進行大規模遣返。
外國投資影響
英國的外國直接投資可能在重組的企業所得稅投入使用後增加，這是英國退歐的好處之一。據預計英國境内的外國公司投資將增加9.7%。然而，企業在考慮建立分公司時不僅僅考慮企業稅務。愛爾蘭當前對外國投資的吸引力與英國類似，取決於其教育的質量和市場的效率。英國退歐對愛爾蘭吸引外國投資的影響可能不會很大，因為愛爾蘭當前維持了很高的跨國公司投資水平。持續改善的愛爾蘭基礎設施和金融市場將會增加其對跨國公司的吸引力，從而最大化的減小與其經濟息息相關的英國退出歐盟的負面影響。
How Brexit Would Impact Ireland’s Economy
By Thom Tracy | June 23, 2016 — 3:29 PM EDT
Global stocks enjoyed significant one-day gains on June 20, 2016, as the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union (EU) appeared less likely after the murder of pro-EU British legislator Jo Cox prompted parties on both sides of the issue to suspend crusades. Nonetheless, Irish policymakers examine the economic impact of a British exit, or Brexit, as the emerald isle maintains a healthy trade and labor interdependence with its neighbor to the east.
The EU, formed shortly after World War ll, is a cooperative economic and political unit that contains 28 nations, 19 of which adopted the euro as its common currency. The United Kingdom’s potential withdrawal from EU membership holds broad implications for the developing nation, as Ireland saw rising imports and domestic spending boost its gross domestic product (GDP) by 7.8% in 2015. Ireland’s embrace of U.S. drug and technology company investment, along with exports bolstered by a weakened euro, aided in its rapid growth. The true measure of expansion is difficult to assess, however, as much of the wealth generated exits the nation in the form of shareholder profit.
Trade Impact
Exports of goods to the United Kingdom account for nearly one-third of Ireland’s total output. Britain’s exit from the EU could trigger increased tariffs on trade with European neighbors, rendering imports more expensive. The subsequent reliance on domestic goods and services portend a marked decline in volume crossing the Irish Sea to the United Kingdom, considerably denting volume on which the Celtic tiger has come to rely. Slowed growth in Britain translates to contraction in Ireland as a Brexit increases the prospects for a U.K. economic downturn that could extend from Coleraine to Cork. Resulting from the creation of bilateral trade agreements between EU nations and the United Kingdom, a projected 21.6% decrease in British import volume expects to ripple across Ireland, whose exports to its neighbor are predicted to fall by 3.3% in turn.
Labor Impact
Economic health largely determines migratory movements of laborers between Ireland and the United Kingdom. Between 2011 and 2013, approximately 60,000 Irish citizens sought residence in the United Kingdom, as unemployment spikes forced laborers to seek employment elsewhere. The establishment of a common travel area enables the flow of Irish labor to the United Kingdom, a policy that might be curbed should the Brits terminate membership in the EU. The restriction of free movement between borders holds that the absence of a diaspora equal to that seen in previous years may exert pressure on Irish wages as more people compete for fewer jobs. Forecasts see a 5% drop in skilled laborers’salaries and a 4% decline in earnings among unskilled workers. With over 400,000 Irish citizens residing in Britain, a Brexit puts forth the possibility of mass repatriation resulting from a shuttered market once freely accessed by Celtic labor.
Foreign Investment Impact
Foreign direct investment (FDI) in the United Kingdom is expected to increase in the wake of restructured corporate taxes, a perceived benefit of the nation’s separation from the EU. A proposed rate of 12.5% translates to a 9.7% increase in activity by foreign companies within British borders. However, companies consider factors beyond taxation when choosing locations in which to set up shop. Ireland’s current attractiveness to FDI, mirroring that of the United Kingdom, hinges on the quality of its education and efficiency of its markets. British separation from the EU is expected to have minimal effects on the draw of FDI in Ireland as the nation currently maintains a significant level of multinational activity. Continued improvements in Irish infrastructure and financial markets serve to increase its attractiveness to global companies, thereby minimizing any negative influence realized from the EU’s split with the United Kingdom, an economy with which the republic strongly correlates.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/062316/how-brexit-would-impact-irelands-economy.asp