負利率是好還是壞呢？

 Elvis Picardo  2016年6月26日

經濟大蕭條在2009年6月結束，但是受其影響，七年後的經濟增長仍然存在動力不足的情況。國際貨幣基金組織在其2016年4月的《全球經濟展望》中哀歎“全球經濟增長緩慢的時間已經太長了”。國際貨幣基金組織認為不利的人口趨勢、生產力增長緩慢和全球金融危機的影響阻礙了發達經濟體的經濟增長。

許多國家開始採取非常規貨幣政策來刺激他們的經濟增長，在這些措施中，負利率可以說是最具爭議性的。那麼負利率到底對經濟有利還是有害呢？下面我們來闡述下其三個主要利弊。

有利方面

負利率能刺激消費者支出：低利率是一個刺激消費者支出的強大工具。當把錢存在銀行會產生懲罰性利息的時候，消費者更願意把錢用來購買他們需要的商品。同時，在利率接近於零或者低於零時償還購買汽車和家電的貸款會比利率高時容易的多。值得註意的是，想要消費者樂意消費，就得讓他們對經濟前景有信心。例如，盡管美國的利率水平明顯高於歐洲，美國4月的零售率上漲了1.3%，是13月以來的最高漲幅，因為消費者信心達到了一年多來的最高點。相比之下，就像利率一樣，歐洲的消費者信心處於負值，這反映出了消費者對經濟的悲觀態度和他們的財務狀況。

負利率能鼓勵銀行放貸：資金是經濟增長的動力，而銀行則是這一動力的主要提供者。美國和歐洲的銀行被大蕭條中的資產負債表弄的傷痕累累，他們在幾年的恢復之後才願意把存在各自中央銀行和政府債券中資金用來放貸。負存款利率鼓勵銀行房貸，因為放貸的利息收入要比存在央行獲取負利息要好的多。考慮到這一因素，歐洲央行在2016年3月將其存款利息設定成負值，這使得銀行一夜之間收回了存款的0.4%。與此同時，為了鼓勵銀行借款和進行更多放貸，它還將基準貸款和邊際貸款利率下調了5個點，分別達到0%和0.25%。如果這這些措施還不能提高歐元區銀行放貸的信心，那麼什麼能呢？

負利率刺激投資：負利率也能刺激投資，因為融資的成本非常低。企業可能會被誘導進行新基础設施、科技、研發和其他生產型資產的投資，而投資者將會關註承諾提供積極回報的房地產、股票和其他資產。當然，這些“套利交易”的風險是可能產生巨大的資產泡沫，在下面會進行解釋。然而，有史以來最低的利率是股票市場在2015年6月達到新高的最主要因素，他們也在促進全球經濟從近60年來最嚴重的經濟衰退中進行复蘇。

不利方面

泡沫過多：雖然央行希望銀行在貸款組合中加入一些測量過的風險，問題是過低的利率會催生過多的投機並在經濟的許多方面產生泡沫。許多國家的房地產市場被認為估值過高，鑒於其對國家經濟的重要性，這一泡沫的破滅可能會給經濟帶來非常嚴重的後果。巴菲特在5月接受的一次CNBC採訪中表示，如果確定未來50年利率一直為零，那麼道瓊斯工業平均指數將達到100000點，因為出售股票的市盈率將達到現在的100或者200倍。這並不是說巴菲特支援瘋狂的進行投機，他只是想表明在長期低利率環境中估值會變成什麼樣。

鄰國受害：低利率會使本國貨幣貶值，這是一個許多依靠出口支撐經濟增長國家的央行希望看到的理想情況。問題是如果一個主要國家的貨幣貶值，會引發其貿易伙伴之間的競爭性貶值，會產生一個“鄰國受害”的不利環境。鑒於許多國家已經出現負利率和貨幣貶值，巴西前財務部長Guido Mantega在2010年9月發出國際貨幣戰爭即將到來的警告似乎成為了一個預言。

未知的領域：負利率的一個主要風險是未知的領域和不可預測的結果。負利率帶來的問題遠遠多餘答案，例如：負利率會因為發出經濟陷入困境的信號而損害信心嗎？央行將在何時採取何種方式將貨幣政策回歸正常化呢？隨著時間的推移會出現通脹失控的風險嗎？

總結

負利率能刺激消費支出、鼓勵銀行放貸並刺激投資。另一方面，它可以產生巨大的資產泡沫、引發競爭性貨幣貶值並可能帶來無法預測的後果。不足為奇的是，我們都在等待負利率效果的出現，無論它們對經濟有利還是有害。

Are Negative Interest Rates Good or Bad?

By Elvis Picardo, CFA | Updated June 26, 2016 — 10:15 AM EDT

The Great Recession ended in June 2009, but seven years later, one of its lasting legacies seems to be anemic economic growth. The International Monetary Fund, in its World Economic Outlook of April 2016, bemoaned the fact that global growth has been "too slow for too long." The IMF cited unfavorable demographic trends, low productivity growth, and the fallout from the global financial crisis as factors hampering growth in the advanced economies.

Many nations have adopted increasingly unconventional monetary policies to stimulate their economies and jumpstart growth; of these measures, negative interest rates are arguably the most controversial (See also: How Interest Rates Can Go Negative). So do negative interest rates help or hurt the economy? Here are three of their main pluses and minuses.

On the Plus Side

Negative interest rates spur consumer spending: Lower interest rates are a powerful tool to stimulate consumer spending. Consumers find it vastly preferable to spend their money on things they desire, when the alternative is to actually incur a penalty for depositing money in the bank. As well, servicing the debt used to purchase an automobile or household appliance is so much easier when the interest charged is close to zero or in the low single digits rather than in the high single digits or low teens. The caveat here is that in order to open up their wallets, consumers should have confidence in their economic prospects. For example, although interest rates in the United States are significantly higher than the levels prevailing in Europe, U.S. retail sales surged 1.3% in April – the biggest increase in 13 months – as consumer confidence rose close to a one-year high. In contrast, like its interest rates, European consumer confidence is in negative territory, measuring -7 (on a scale of -100 to +100) in May and reflecting some pessimism among consumers about the economy and their financial situation.

Negative rates should encourage banks to lend: Money is the fuel that powers an economy, and banks are the main provider of this vital ingredient. U.S. and European banks were so badly scarred by the damage inflicted on their balance sheets during the Great Recession that it took some years into the recovery before they were willing to make loans with an element of risk instead of parking funds at their respective central banks or in sovereign bonds. Negative deposit rates encourage banks to lend because the prospect of earning some interest income on their loans is preferable to the certainty of a negative return from holding excess funds at the central bank. Consider this example. In March 2016, the European Central Bank took the rate on its deposit facility deeper into negative territory, charging banks 0.4% to hold their cash overnight. At the same time, it cut its benchmark lending and marginal lending rates by 5 basis points to 0% and 0.25% respectively, in order to encourage banks to borrow and extend more loans. If these incentives do not bolster the confidence of euro-area banks to make more loans, what will?

Negative rates boost investments: Negative rates also boost investments because the cost of funding is so low. Companies may be induced to invest in new facilities, technology, R&D and other productive assets, while investors will target real estate, stocks and other assets that hold the promise of a positive return. Of course, the risk of such "carry trades" is that they may spawn massive asset bubbles, as explained in the next section. However, while record low interest rates were a key factor in enabling stock markets to reach new peaks by June 2015, they were also instrumental in fostering a global recovery from the worst recession in more than 60 years.

On the Minus Side

Bubbling over: While central banks want to encourage banks to take measured risks in their loan portfolios, the danger is that record-low interest rates may promote excessive speculation and create bubbles in many parts of the economy. Housing markets in many nations are considered to be highly overvalued, and given their importance to national economies, the bursting of these real estate "bubbles" can have dire consequences. Warren Buffett remarked in a CNBC interview in May that if there was absolute certainty interest rates would be at zero for 50 years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average would hit 100,000 because stocks would be selling at 100 or 200 times earnings. That's not to say Buffett is endorsing rampant speculation; rather, his comment gives an idea of how far valuations can be stretched in a "low for long" interest rate environment.

Beggar thy neighbor: A negative interest rate pushes down the domestic currency, which is a desirable outcome for many central banks that are depending on export-driven growth to revitalize their moribund economies. The problem is that if a major nation depreciates its currency – either overtly or covertly – it may set off a round of competitive devaluations among its trading partners, giving rise to an unhealthy "beggar thy neighbor" environment. With negative interest rates and sliding currencies now the norm in many countries, former Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega's warning back in September 2010 that an international currency war had broken out seems prophetic.

Uncharted territory: A key risk of a negative interest rate policy is that it is uncharted territory and may have unforeseen consequences. Negative rates pose more questions than answers, such as – Do negative rates impair confidence because they signal that the economy is in dire straits? How and when will central banks ever get back to normalizing monetary policy? Is there a risk of runaway inflation building up over time?

The Bottom Line

Negative interest rates spur consumer spending, should encourage bank lending, and boost investments. On the flip side, they can create massive asset bubbles, set off competitive devaluations, and may have unforeseen consequences. Not surprisingly, the jury is still out on the effectiveness of negative interest rates, and whether they help or hurt the economy.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/062616/are-negative-interest-rates-good-or-bad.asp