誰是退歐的大贏家？

英國退歐成功後的情況十分複雜，幾個月甚至幾年的時間都不足以搞清英國和歐盟之間的關系。退歐成功後，除了貨幣，還有哪些地方會受到影響呢？

退歐公投剛剛結束，便有人一敗塗地，還有一些人成為了贏家卻鮮有人知曉。

輸家是一目了然的：

英國首相卡梅倫是留歐派，他在週五早間宣佈辭職。

英鎊計價的資產和收入，或者說是富有的英國人。

輸家還有各金融機構，他們的股價在週五出現大幅下跌，其中以歐洲央行為最（瑞士聯合銀行下跌13%，瑞士信貸下跌16%，法國巴黎銀行下跌21%，蘇格蘭皇家銀行下跌27%，巴克萊銀行下跌20%，勞埃德銀行下跌23%，德國商業銀行下跌16%）。

那麼退歐成功的贏家是誰呢？

第一個贏家是黃金持有者。黃金仍然是金本位時期的避險資產。交易員們在週五早上做的第一件事情就是買入黃金。金價在當天上漲了5%，達到每盎司1315美元，在週一繼續上漲至1325美元。而其他的大宗商品，如原油、天然氣等都同股票一樣被大量抛售。

在接下來的幾週中，政治領域和金融領域都會有很大的不確定性，因此黃金信徒都是退歐公投的大贏家。

第二個大贏家是鮑裡斯·約翰遜。他是前任倫敦市長，曾在國會擔任了13個月的議員，現在他是最熱門的首相候選人。事實上，英國的博彩公司認為約翰遜帶領的保守黨取代首相卡梅倫的賠率為4:6。

約翰遜是退歐派的領袖，他會給新任首相帶來極大的政治威脅。他現在已經收獲了他的政治果實。

保守黨在去年的選舉中以微弱的優勢獲勝，在650個下議院席位中獲得了330個。如果約翰斯能夠接任卡梅倫的職務，那麼他將一直擔任首相之職，直至下次選舉。

第三大贏家是在線交易商/外匯經紀商。退歐成功引發了金融市場的劇烈動蕩，而且這個動蕩將持續很長時間，因此外匯經紀商在很長時間内都會享有極高的交易量。

在市場動蕩的時期，外匯經紀商的現有客戶會增加交易量，也會有很多新戶加入到炒匯行列。所有的外匯經紀商都能從中獲益，而且這一趨勢將持續很長時間。

這些在線經紀商的股價也被整體股市拉低，在週五的交易日内，IG集團股價下跌4%，CMC Markets下跌2%，Plus500下跌3%，倫敦資本集團下跌2%，瑞訊銀行下跌4%，盈透集團下跌6%。

然而，一旦投資者們清醒過來，就會發現這些外匯經紀商是退歐事件的大贏家。

第四個大贏家是唐納德·特朗普。令人諷刺的是，在退歐公投結果公佈的那一天，唐納德就在英國。如果全世界的目光沒有聚焦於退歐公投的結果，特朗普重新收購蘇格蘭西部特恩貝裡高爾夫度假村的消息便會登上頭條。

雖然特在特恩貝裡的投資沒有收獲世界的矚目，但是他和他的支持者對退歐的結果十分滿意。

Who are the big winners from the #VoteLeave Brexit referendum victory?

It will be a long time before we better understand the implications of the #VoteLeave victory in last week’s UK Brexit referendum.

Indeed it will be a while – perhaps even months or years – before we really find out what the new relationship will be between the UK and the rest of Europe. And what else might change (breakup of the EUR currency?) in the wake of the Leave win.

However in the immediate aftermath of the Leave side victory there were some very clear losers, and some less obvious winners.

The (near term) Brexit losers were fairly easy to spot:

• about-to-be-former British Prime Minister David Cameron who led the Remain campaign, and who fell on his sword Friday morning by resigning;
• anyone with GPB denominated assets and income, namely wealthy Brits; and
• financial institutions, especially European banks, whose shares dropped more than most in Friday trading (e.g UBS -13%, Credit Suisse -16%, BNP Paribas -21%, SocGen –23%, Royal Bank of Scotland -27%, Barclays -20%, ING -19%, Lloyds -23%,  Commerzbank -16%…).

The winners, however, were a little harder to discern.

So who seemed to gain from the surprise Leave victory?

Here is an initial list we compiled. Do you agree, or disagree? Someone or some group we left out? Let us know by adding your comments below.

Gold bugs. Gold is still the ‘Gold Standard’ when it comes to safe haven assets. And one of the first things traders did Friday when all heck broke loose was buy gold. For the day Friday, Gold ended up about 5% to $1,315 an ounce (and continued upwards early Monday to $1,325) as other commodities such as Crude Oil and Natural Gas were dumped alongside equities. CNBC reported that a number of noted hedge funds were long gold, including George Soros (who seems to always benefit from UK woes), his former protege Stan Druckenmiller, and UK based Odey Asset Management (known in the Forex world as a 25% owner of Plus500 Ltd (LON:PLUS)).

With a lot of both political and financial uncertainty to follow in the weeks and months to come, it looks like Gold believers will be one of the big winners from Brexit.

Boris Johnson. The Mayor of London until less than a year ago, Boris Johnson has been a Member of Parliament for just 13 months and although he was not a minister in departing PM David Cameron’s cabinet, he now stands as the odds-on favourite to replace Cameron as Prime Minister. In fact, UK bookmakers have Johnson as the odds-on favourite at 4:6 to be the choice of his ruling conservative party to win the PM race to replace Cameron, which should occur by the time of the party’s October caucus.

Johnson was both the emotional and vocal leader of the Vote Leave campaign, which was a big political risk for the new MP, and he now stands to reap the rewards of his political gambit.

And with the Conservatives having won last year’s election with a (slim) majority, holding 330 seats in the 650 seat House of Commons, Johnson (if he’s the chosen as successor to Cameron) might be Prime Minister for a while until calling the next election.

Online trading / Forex brokers. The Leave victory creates a lot of uncertainty in the financial markets, which looks like it will last a while. And that is likely, in our view, to result in increased trading volumes at Forex brokers for a prolonged period, as volatility is likely to rule the markets for a prolonged period.

Periods of heightened volatility leading to increased trading volumes are ideal conditions for Forex brokers to both increase Revenues from existing clients, and to attract new clients who want to get in on all the action. A good example was our report earlier this morning on FCA regulated FX and CFD broker Plus500, which saw record Spread revenues as well as record new client signups on Friday.

We also earlier reported on record trading volumes at some of the institutional eFX platforms on Friday. No reason to believe that it was any different at most of the Retail Forex brokers. And the good times in the form of growing trading volumes are likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

The shares of publicly traded online brokers were dragged down on Friday along with the rest of the equity market – IG Group Holdings plc (LON:IGG) -4%, CMC Markets Plc (LON:CMCX) -3%, London Capital Group Holdings plc (LON:LCG) -2%, Plus500 Ltd (LON:PLUS) -3%, Swissquote Group Holding SA (SWX:SQN) -4%, Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:IBKR) -6%.

However once the markets regain their sanity we believe that investors will come to realize that all this change and volatility will benefit those who are agents of change – the Forex brokers.

Donald Trump. The Donald was, somewhat ironically, in the UK the day the Brexit vote result was announced. If not for the total focus of the global media on Brexit fallout, Donald Trump’s appearance at the formal re-opening of his recently acquired Turnberry golf resort in western Scotland would have been lead-item news in the UK, the US and elsewhere.

While Trump might be a bit disappointed that he didn’t get the coverage he was hoping for to promote his new investment in Turnberry, he and his supporters were nevertheless very buoyed and encouraged by the result of the Brexit referendum.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：

https://www.leaprate.com/2016/06/who-are-the-big-winners-from-the-voteleave-brexit-referendum-victory/