Investopedia Staff 2016年6月28日
每天來自全球各地的參與者進行的數以萬億計的交易使外匯市場成為了真正的全球市場。外匯市場交易事實上已經成為了一個全球化活動，這意味著宏觀經濟事件在外匯市場中扮演的角色比以前任何時候都更加重要。下面將介紹一些新的外匯市場參與者需要註意的經濟趨勢和事件。
宏觀經濟在外匯市場中扮演的角色
外匯市場基本上是由總體經濟事件驅動的，這些經濟事件會影響交易者決定，而交易者將會在某些特定時間決定貨幣的價值。一個國家經濟的健康程度是決定其貨幣價值的一個重要因素。然而整體經濟健康程度受可能每天都發生變化的大量經濟事件和信息影響，使得外匯市場也可能隨時發生變化。讓我們來詳細讨論下這些影響經濟現狀和推動貨幣價值變化的因素。
資本市場
全球資本市場也許是經濟健康與否的最明顯指標，因為股票和債券市場是全球最受人關註的市場。因為有不間斷的媒體報道和關於交易公司、機構以及國有企業的即時信息，資本市場很少漏掉一些公開信息。一個國家的股價大幅度上漲或者下跌將很清楚的表明投資者已經改變對該國未來經濟前景的看法。
同樣的，許多經濟體是由一些經濟闆塊驅動的，例如加拿大嚴重依賴大宗商品市場。在這種情況下，加元變得與原油和金屬等大宗產品的走勢息息相關。原油價格上漲可能導致加元相對於其他貨幣升值。大宗商品交易者和外匯交易者一樣，都很依賴經濟數據進行交易，因此在很多情況下，一份相同的經濟數據會對這兩個市場都產生直接影響。
此外，債券市場也對外匯市場有重大影響，因為固定收益證券和貨幣都嚴重依賴利率。債券波動是貨幣波動的首要影響因素，也就是說債券收益率的變化會直接影響貨幣價值。因為兩個市場的關系非常密切，了解政府債券是如何定價的對成為一個優秀的交易員非常重要。
國際貿易
另一個重要因素是國家間的貿易水平和趨勢。貿易水平表明國家間對商品的相對需求。一個國家的商品在國際市場的需求量大通常會使其貨幣升值。例如，為了購買澳大利亞商品，買家必須把其貨幣轉換成澳元。澳元需求的增加會使其升值。
貿易順差或者逆差體現了一個國家在國際貿易中的競争力。帶有巨大貿易逆差的國家是國際貿易中的淨買家（或者說進口商），大量的進口導致他們的貨幣被更多的出售以購買其他國家的貨幣。這種情況會對進口國家的貨幣價值有消極影響。
政治狀況
一個國家的政治格局在其經濟前景中占重要地位，因此將會影響其貨幣的價值。外匯交易員不斷觀察政治新聞以判斷將會發生什麼，如果有事件發生，就會被考慮到經濟前景中。這其中包括增加政府開支和對某個部門或者行業加強限制等措施。
大選永遠是貨幣市場的一個主要事件，因為利率往往會更青睞於財政上更加複雜的政黨上台。英國退歐公投就是一個很好的例子，當英國投票決定離開歐盟時對英鎊產生了重大影響。在公投之後英鎊價值降到了1985年以來的最低點，因為英國經濟前景充滿了不確定性。
財務和貨幣政策是政府做出經濟決定的重要因素。央行做出的影響利率的決定受到外匯市場的密切關註。
經濟數據
經濟報告對外匯交易員非常重要。獲取一份經濟報告日歷對了解這個節奏超快的市場是至關重要的。GDP可能是最明顯的經濟報告，因為它是一個國家經濟表現和強度的基本形式。GDP統計一個國家產品和服務的總產出。然而要記住的一個關鍵是GDP是一個落後指標，這意味著她報告的事件和趨勢已經發生。
通脹也是一個非常重要的指標，因為它是價格水平上漲和購買力下降的信號。然而，通脹是一把雙刃劍，因為許多人把其使貨幣貶值的能力歸功於降低購買力。另一方面，它也可能導致貨幣升值，因為央行可能為了達到通脹增長水平而提高利率。通脹是一個備受經濟學家争議的話題，並且它對貨幣的影響很難簡單描述。
例如就業水平、零售業、制造業指數和產能利用等其他報告也對預測一個經濟體和貨幣的強度非常重要。
總結
外匯市場最終是由經濟因素，也就是反映一個國家經濟強度的指標驅動的。一個國家的經濟前景是其貨幣價值的最重要決定因素，因此了解這些因素會幫助你跟上競争激烈並且快速發展的外匯市場的節奏。
Economic Factors That Affect The Forex Market
By Investopedia Staff | Updated June 28, 2016 — 9:01 AM EDT
With buyers and sellers from all corners of the globe participating in trillions of dollars of trades each day, forex is a true global marketplace. The fact that foreign exchange trading has become such a globalized activity means that macroeconomic events play an even greater role in forex than ever before. Here some economic trends and events that those new to forex should be aware of.
The Role of Macroeconomics in Forex
The forex market is primarily driven by overarching macroeconomic factors that influence the decisions of the traders who ultimately decide the value of a currency at any given point in time. The economic health of a nation's economy is an important factor in the value of its currency. Overall economic health, however, is shaped by numerous economic events and information that may change on a daily basis, contributing to the 24/7 nature of the international foreign exchange market. Let's take a closer look at some of the factors that influence an economy's standing and drive changes in the value of its currency.
Capital Markets
The global capital markets are perhaps the most visible indicators of an economy's health, while stock and bond markets are the most noticeable markets in the world. With constant media coverage and up-to-the-second information on the dealings of corporations, institutions and government entities, there is not much public information that the capital markets miss. A wide rally or sell-off of securities originating from one country or another should be a clear signal that the future outlook (short term or long term) for that economy has changed in investors' eyes.
Similarly, many economies are sector driven, such as Canada's heavily commodity-based market. In this case, the Canadian dollar is heavily correlated to the movements of commodities such as crude oil and metals. A rally in oil prices would likely lead to the appreciation of the loonie relative to other currencies. Commodity traders, like forex traders, rely heavily on economic data for their trades, so in many cases the same economic data will have a direct affect on both markets.
Moreover, the bond markets are critical to what is happening in the forex market, since both fixed income securities and currencies rely heavily on interest rates. Movements in Treasuries are a first level factor in movements in currencies, meaning that a change in yields will directly affect currency values. Because of how closely tied the two markets are, it is important to understand how bonds - government bonds especially - are valued in order to excel as a forex trader.
International Trade
Another key factor is balance of trade levels and trends between nations. The trade levels between nations serve as a proxy for the relative demand of goods from a nation. A nation with goods or services that are in high demand internationally will typically see an appreciation of its currency. For example, in order to purchase goods from Australia, buyers must convert their currency into Australian dollars (AUD) to make the purchase. The increased demand for the AUD will put upward pressure on it.
Trade surpluses and deficits exemplify a nation's competitive standing in international trade. Countries with a large trade deficit are net buyers/importers of international goods, resulting in more of their currency being sold to purchase other nations' currencies in order to pay for the international goods. This type of situation is likely to have a negative impact on the value of an importing country's currency.
Political Conditions
The political landscape of a nation plays a major role in the economic outlook for that country and, consequently, the perceived value of its currency. Forex traders are constantly monitoring political news and events to gauge what moves, if any, a country's government may take in the economy. These can include measures from increasing government spending to tightening restrictions on a particular sector or industry.
An upcoming election is always a major event for currency markets, as exchange rates will often react more favorably to parties with fiscally responsible platforms and governments willing to pursue economic growth. A good example is the Brexit vote, which had a major impact on the British pound (GBP) when the UK voted to leave the EU. The currency reached its lowest levels since 1985 after the vote because the UK's economical prospects were suddenly highly uncertain.
The fiscal and monetary policies of any government are the most important factors in its economic decision making. Central bank decisions that impact interest rates are keenly watched by the forex market for any changes in key rates or future outlooks.
Economic Releases
Economic reports are the backbone of a forex trader's playbook. Maintaining an economic report calendar is crucial to staying current in this ultra-fast paced marketplace. GDP may be the most obvious economic report, as it is the baseline of a country's economic performance and strength. GDP measures the total output of goods and services produced within an economy. One key thing to remember, however, is that GDP is a lagging indicator, meaning that it reports on events and trends that have already occurred.
Inflation is also a very important indicator as it sends a signal of increasing price levels and falling purchasing power. However, inflation is a double-edged sword, as many view it as placing downward pressure on a currency due to retreating purchasing power. On the other hand, it can also lead to currency appreciation as it may force central bankers to increase rates in order to curb rising inflation levels. Inflation is a hotly contested issue amongst economists and its effects on currencies is never black or white.
Other reports such as employment levels, retail sales, manufacturing indexes and capacity utilization also carry important information on the current and forecasted strength of an economy and its currency.
Bottom Line
The forex market is ultimately driven by economic factors that, in turn, are indicators of a country's economic strength. The economic outlook for a country is the most important determinant of its currency's value, so knowing the factors and indicators to watch will help you keep pace in the competitive and fast-moving world of forex.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/11/economic-factors-affecting-forex.asp