英國退出歐盟將會對歐元和美元造成怎樣的影響

Sean Ross  2016年7月5日

 2016年6月23日，英國選民將對是否決定離開歐盟進行投票，而所有的外匯交易員都屏氣凝神的關註這一事件的發展。大多數專家認為如果英國離開歐盟，那麼對英國貨幣來說將是一場災難。其中猜測的結果包括英鎊的崩潰和暫時輕微的兌美元和歐元的下跌。

為什麼英國退歐會傷害英鎊

英國退出歐盟，將引發金融和投資市場的許多不確定性。因為外匯市場的特性決定它更在意短期變化，不穩定性通常會在抛售之前出現。緊張的外匯交易員很可能會抛售英鎊，購入更穩定貨幣，直到英國能證明在退歐後能保持穩定。

英國退歐之後另一個使英鎊不穩定的因素是英國大規模的未償還債務。截止到退歐投票生效時，英國的債務將達到1.72萬億英鎊。這一金額相當於該國GDP的90%左右。如果退出歐盟引發國際貨幣基金組織和英國財務部預測那樣的經濟不景氣，英國政府將面臨沉重的債務壓力。

如果英格蘭銀行使用擴張性貨幣政策解決債務問題或者可能的經濟衰退，那麼英國未來的通脹預期將會上升。這會使英鎊對外匯交易員的吸引力下降。更糟糕的是，標準普爾已經發出警告，如果英國決定離開歐盟，其AAA級的信用評級可能會受到影響。

作為避險貨幣的美元

自從佈雷頓森林會議以來，美元已經成為了事實上的全球儲備貨幣。由於有美國政府和美國工人強大的生產力提供的信任和信用支持，美元一直以來都是外匯交易者的避險貨幣。

美聯儲相對的強硬政策增加了美元的吸引力。歐洲央行和日本央行在2016年都實行了負利率政策。盡管美元利率還處於較低水平且未來加息的可能性正在降低，美聯儲政策的引發的通脹仍遠遠低於其他央行。

歐元的不確定性

如果英國退出歐盟，可能也會引發歐元下跌。英國的離開將會威脅已經受到内部沖突和銀行問題打擊的歐盟政治和經濟的穩定性。而這一事件發展的最終受益者無疑將是美元。

盡管如此，許多專家估計在此事件中英鎊受到的傷害將大於歐元。即使歐元對美元貶值，也可能對英鎊升值。兩端的波動可能使歐元與真實的經濟數據分離，從而價值被高估或者低估並且產生巨大波動。

另一種觀點

即使英國離開歐盟，現在也不能確定英鎊會下跌。外匯市場對英國退歐的準備已經進行了數月之久。許多經紀商提高了保證金要求，GBP/USD貨幣對已經在之前的會議創造了盈利機會。 GBP/EUR貨幣對也有類似的情況。

即使投票決定離開歐盟，英國政府也會有可能採取支持增長、支持貿易和其他支持貨幣的措施。這些事件很難預測，而起如果受到來自蘇格蘭和北愛爾蘭的阻力，這些事件發生的幾率不大。不過，議會或者卡梅倫政府可能會發出穩定事件的言論或者活動。

How Brexit Can Impact the Euro and the U.S. Dollar

By Sean Ross | July 5, 2016 — 1:00 PM EDT

On June 23, 2016, British voters will determine whether the United Kingdom will leave the European Union, and foreign exchange (forex) traders are collectively holding their breath. If the Leave movement succeeds, most experts predict tough times for the U.K. currency. Speculation ranges from an outright collapse of the British pound to a mild and temporary fall against the U.S. dollar and the euro.

Why Brexit Could Harm the Pound

The British exit, or Brexit, introduces a lot of uncertainty in financial and investment markets. Because forex markets are naturally focused on the short term, new instability usually precedes a sell-off. Nervous forex traders are likely to dump the pound, move to more stable currencies and wait until the newly independent United Kingdom proves it can be stable.

Another reason for the pound's likely struggle after Brexit is the United Kingdom's large outstanding debt. By the time the referendum vote takes place, the U.K. national debt will reach past 1.72 trillion pounds. This represents approximately 90% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). If leaving the EU triggers a recession, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and British Treasury have predicted, the British government may struggle to meet its debt obligations.

If the Bank of England (BoE) responds to debt problems or an economic slump with expansionary monetary policy, expectations of future British inflation should rise. This makes the pound less attractive in forex trades. To make matters worse, Standard & Poor's already issued a warning that Britain risks jeopardizing its AAA rating if Leave carries the vote.

The U.S. Dollar as a Safe Haven

Ever since the Bretton Woods conference, the U.S. dollar has been the de facto reserve currency for the world. Backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. federal government and strengthened by the impressive productivity of American workers, the U.S. dollar has historically been a safe haven for currency traders.

Adding to the dollar's attractiveness is the relatively hawkish policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) both started negative interest rate policies (NIRP) in 2016. Even though the Fed remains in extremely low territory and expectations of future rate hikes have diminished, its policy is still less inflationary than rival central banks.

Uncertainty With the Euro

There is also potential for a euro flight if the United Kingdom pulls out. Losing the United Kingdom threatens the political and economic stability of the entire EU, which already suffers from internal conflict and banking issues. The clear winner from ongoing drama in the continent would be the U.S. Dollar.

Nevertheless, most experts still predict a Brexit to hurt the pound more than the dollar. Even if the euro weakens against the dollar, it might see gains against the pound. Volatility on both ends could decouple the euro from real economic data, creating overvaluation or undervaluation and setting up forex markets for a bumpy ride.

An Alternative Argument

Even if the United Kingdom leaves the EU, it is not certain that the pound will sink. Forex markets have been bracing for the Brexit over several months. Many brokers raised their margin requirements, and theGBP/USD pair already created profit opportunities during prior sessions. There are similar characteristics in the GBP/EUR pair.

There is also the possibility of the U.K. government announcing pro-growth, pro-trade and other currency-friendly measures in the event of a Leave vote. It is difficult to predict such events, and it might be unlikely if the government in London receives pushback from Scotland or Northern Ireland on divergent policy. Still, there may be opportunity for stabilizing rhetoric or activity from Parliament or the Cameron administration.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex-currencies/070516/how-brexit-can-impact-euro-and-us-dollar.asp