為什麼高盛認為美元將保持強勁

Sean Ross  2016半年8月23日

美元在2014到2015年間意外的強勁，但是投資巨頭高盛集團認為美元還有很大的上漲空間。高盛一直以來都持有這個看法，在2015年6月首次發出美元強勁的預測，之後在其年中報告中重申了這一觀點。如果這一看法正確，強勁的美元將使大多數業務在美國的公司受益，至少會比擁有更多國際業務的公司獲得更大的好處。這一情況同樣能促進美國消費者購買國外商品，可能會引起生活成本不錯的上漲。

高盛7月的聲明之後，美國公佈了遠遜於預期的2016年第二季度GDP增長。這一訊息使在GDP報告之前一直上漲的美元大幅下跌。到2016年8月2日，7月所有的美元上漲已經全部消失。這不能說明高盛集團的觀點是錯誤的，但是這對美元上漲的觀點出現一些緩解。

高盛的年中報告

高盛全球投資者研究團隊在7月19日發佈了名為“在美國尋找避險方式”的Portfolio Passport。這個55頁的文件指出投資者應該向國內銷售量大的美國股票和在美國銷售量大的外國股票傾斜投資。

高盛集團特別強調100%在美國國內銷售的美股。報告說美國面向消費者企業的策略是在相對穩定的美國經濟受益的同時隔離英國退歐、中國經濟增長的風險和美元上漲的影響。報告指出面向美國消費者的國內賣家傾向於擁有較低的市盈率和更高的預計增長。

為什麼美元會更加強勁

高盛集團認為其美元看漲預期將“轉變為對全球市場增長的預期和中央銀行政策。”高盛經濟學家預測美聯儲在2017年之前加息的幾率為65%，但是仍然預測國外央行的態度將會比美聯儲更加溫和。這將使美元在外匯市場中變得最有吸引力。

這是一個重要的點。美元的強度不僅僅依賴美聯儲的政策，而是依賴美聯儲政策與外國央行政策的對比。日本央行和歐洲央行都在今年早期推出了負利率政策。央行政策的分歧可能迫使投資者在美元中尋求避險。

報告指出，自從英國公投退出歐元區之後美元已經上漲了2%，早期對國內國際市場的擔憂已經衰退並允許美元繼續上漲。高盛的專家認為美聯儲將在臨近年底時加息，這將和2015年12月的加息一樣，給美元的上漲帶來促進作用。

美元指數下滑

苦苦掙紮的經濟使對美聯儲加息的預期下降。2016年第二季度是連續第三個經濟增長低於2%的季度。一個月之前，高盛認為美國經濟即將回彈。鑒於疲軟的收益預測，該公司的研究團隊估計第二季度的經濟增長率為2%，這低於路透社提供的2.6%的預測，但是也幾乎是1.1%的實際經濟增長的兩倍。

高盛的報告發佈不到一週，美國指數達到2016年2月以來最高點。美元在中國陷入困境、南美經濟疲軟和英國與歐盟都處在英國退歐公投後的影響中時表現強勁。

美聯儲在今年下半年加息的可能性正在下降。到7月末，9月加息可能性從18%跌到12%。高盛期貨市場團隊報告12月加息的幾率已經跌到了40%。

Why Goldman Thinks the U.S. Dollar Will Stay Strong (GS)

By Sean Ross | August 23, 2016 — 2:43 PM EDT

The U.S. dollar (USD) was surprisingly strong during 2014 and 2015, but investment-banking giant Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) believes that there is more room to grow. This has been a consistent refrain from Goldman, which first predicted strong dollar growth in May 2016, and reasserted its confidence in its midyear report. If correct, a strengthening dollar should benefit companies that conduct most of their business in the United States, at least relative to companies with a stronger international presence. It could also be a boon to American consumers who want to purchase foreign products, potentially offering a nice cost-of-living boost.

Since Goldman's July proclamation, the United States posted much weaker-than-expected gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second quarter of 2016. The news fell hard on the USD, which had been rising prior to the GDP report. All of the dollar's gains in July were wiped out by Aug. 2, 2016. This does not mean that Goldman Sachs was wrong, necessarily, but there are some valid counterpoints to bull arguments for the dollar.

Goldman Sachs Midyear Report

The Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research team released "Portfolio Passport: Take Refuge in America" on July 19, 2016. This 50-page document makes the case that investors should tilt new investments toward American stocks with high domestic sales and foreign stocks with high U.S. Sales.

Goldman Sachs placed particular emphasis on U.S. domestic stocks with 100% domestic sales. The strategy behind American consumer-facing businesses was designed to insulate against "Brexit fallout, China growth risks and a strengthening dollar, while benefiting from the relative stability of the U.S. economy," the report said. The report notes that domestic sellers with an American consumer base tend to have lower price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios and higher projected growth.

Why a Stronger Dollar?

Goldman Sachs attributed its bullish outlook for the USD to "shifts in market expectations for global growth and central bank policy." Goldman's economists anticipated a 65% chance of a Fed rate hike before 2017, but still expected foreign central banks to appear more dovish than the Fed. This would leave the USD as the metaphorical cleanest shirt in the foreign-exchange (forex) hamper.

This is an important point. The strength of the dollar does not rest solely on the policy of the Fed, but rather, on relative Fed policy when compared with foreign central banks. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) and European Central Bank (ECB) each went negative earlier in the year. This divergence in central bank policy could force forex traders to seek refuge in the U.S. Dollar.

The report pointed out that the dollar has been up 2% since Great Britain's vote to leave the eurozone, and that earlier fears about domestic and global recession should recede and allow the USD to float higher. Goldman's experts believe that the Fed will draw closer to a rate hike by year's end and, just as with the last rate hike in December 2015, provide a boost for the dollar.

USD Index Slips

The struggling economy put downward pressure on Fed-hike expectations. The second quarter of 2016 marked the third straight quarter below 2% growth. One month earlier, Goldman liked the resilient U.S. economy. Thanks to weak predicted earnings, the company's research team estimated a 2% growth rate in the second quarter, which is less bullish than the 2.6% estimate provided by Reuters' survey of economists, but almost double the 1.1% actual growth posted by the economy.

Less than one week after the Goldman Sachs report was published, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) reached its highest point since February 2016. The dollar showed strength in light of difficult conditions in China, weakness in South America and the continuing fallout in the U.K. and European Union (EU) post-Brexit.

The likelihood of the Federal Reserve increasing the federal funds rate later in the year appears to be declining. By the end of July 2016, the chances of an interest rate hike in September declined from 18% to 12%. The Goldman Sachs futures market team reported that the odds of a December rate hike had fallen to just 40%.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/082316/why-goldman-thinks-us-dollar-will-stay-strong-gs.asp