為什麼黃金不是美元的對沖

美國著名獨立投資者、加特曼通訊(The Gartman Letter)出版人丹尼斯-加特曼(Dennis Gartman)表示黃金是一種熱點投資，但是使用美元購買黃金與使用日元和歐元購買黃金完全不是一回事。加特曼強調中央銀行使用不同數量貨幣刺激措施對貨幣價值的影響。

央行政策

在金融危機之後的幾年中，全球範圍的中央銀行都使用寬松貨幣政策創造就業機會、促進通脹達到理想水平和改善企業的整體經營環境。

起初，這些政策包含了降低基準利率接近於零和購買債券計劃。中央銀行希望通過這些措施促使利率下降並通過債務資產購買增加貨幣供應。政策制定者希望通過把更多的錢放到大衆手中刺激消費和投資的增長。

美國經濟比許多其他國家的經濟恢複的更快，美聯儲在2014年10月宣佈將不再購買固定收益資產。2015年12月，美聯儲宣佈將進行2006年以來的首次基準利率提升。

歐洲央行和日本央行則採取了不同的方式，他們決定推出更多的刺激措施以穩定經濟環境。這兩家央行在美國央行停止之後繼續進行債務資產購買，並且他們還推出了負利率政策，這在當時是非常讓人意外的。

由於歐洲央行和日本央行推出了負利率政策，他們的貨幣開始貶值。由於匯率波動，黃金收益經歷了大幅度上漲，這些上漲的浮動取決於使用美元、歐元還是日元等計價方式的不同。加特曼表示黃金本身就是貨幣，而且一直以來都受到人們青睞。

貨幣的重要性

在2014年初和2016年7月期間，歐元計價黃金的表現比日元和美元計價的黃金表現要好得多。在這段時期，用歐元計價的黃金上漲了40%，而用日元和美元計價的則分別只上漲8.4%和14%。

因此，使用歐元計價的黃金經歷了兩年的牛市，而用美元計價的黃金則只經歷了六個月的上漲。針對這種情況，加特曼建議投資者使用貶值幾率最大的法定貨幣購買黃金。

這將有很多選擇，加特曼列出了一系列的中央銀行，包括俄羅斯央行、中國央行和巴西央行，這些央行都採取過增加貨幣供應的措施。加特曼預測，由於通脹還維持在較低的水平，這些央行將繼續這些措施。

總結

許多人青睞黃金作為投資的吸引力，並且黃金確實也提供過巨大回報。加特曼斷言，如果投資者認為世界各地的央行會繼續註入流動性增加貨幣供應，他們可能會希望持有多種貨幣計價的黃金。

然而，如果投資者希望美聯儲使用比歐洲央行和日本央行更加保守的貨幣政策，他們將有更大的理由持有歐元或者日元而不是美元計價的黃金。此外，他們也可以利用從本文得到的信息應用到那些可能使用寬松貨幣政策的其他貨幣上，例如俄羅斯盧佈和巴西雷亞爾。

Why Gold Is Not a Hedge Against the Dollar

By Charles Bovaird | August 31, 2016 — 10:00 AM EDT

Dennis Gartman, a well-known commodities trader who publishes The Gartman Letter, considers gold to be a compelling investment, but using the U.S. dollar to buy the precious metal is a rather different matter than purchasing it with the yen or euro. Gartman emphasizes the varying amount of monetary stimulus used by central banks and the consequent impact on currency values.

Central Bank Policy

In the years following the financial crisis, central banks across the world used very liberal monetary policy in an effort to create jobs, keep inflation at a desirable level and improve business conditions overall.

At first, these policies included slashing benchmark interest rates close to zero and embarking on bond-buying programs. With these measures, central banks hoped to place downward pressure on interest rates and expand the money supply through asset purchases. By putting more money in people’s hands, policymakers hoped to spur more robust consumption and investment.

The U.S. economy has recovered more quickly than many others, and the Fed announced in October 2014 that it would no longer purchase fixed-income assets. In December 2015, the central bank announced that it planned to hike benchmark interest rates for the first time since 2006.

The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) took a different approach, deciding to harness more stimulus in an effort to shore up economic conditions. The two financial institutions continued to leverage asset purchase programs after the United States stopped, and they have also dabbled in negative interest rate programs, which were experimental at the time.

Because the ECB and BOJ took this liberal approach toward monetary policies, their currencies depreciated. As a result of these foreign exchange fluctuations, gold has experienced sharply different returns, depending on whether those gains are measured in U.S. dollars, euros or the yen. Gold is a currency itself, one that man has loved for some time, Gartman argues.

The Importance of Currencies

Between early 2014 and July 2016, gold has enjoyed far better performance when measured in the euro than it has in terms of the yen and U.S. dollar. During this time, gold measured in the euro surged 40%, while gold in terms of yen and the U.S. dollar rose 8.4% and 14%, respectively.

Because of this, gold, as measured by the euro, enjoyed a bull market for two and a half years, while the precious metal had been rising for six months in terms of the U.S. dollar. Against this backdrop, Gartman suggests that investors purchase gold denominated in fiat currencies with the greatest chances of depreciating.

There may be many to choose from; Gartman lists a wide range of central banks – including the Reserve Bank of Russia, the People's Bank of China and the Central Bank of Brazil – that were all taking action to increase their money supply. Gartman predicts that these financial institutions will use this approach for some time because inflation remains stubbornly low.

Summary

Many have touted gold’s appeal as an investment, and the precious metal has delivered compelling returns at many points. Investors might want to hold gold denominated in numerous currencies if they expect central banks around the world to keep injecting liquidity into the money supply, Gartman asserts.

However, if these investors expect the Fed to use more conservative monetary policy than the ECB and BOJ, they may have far greater reason to own gold denominated in the euro and yen than in the U.S. dollar. In addition, they might take the lesson learned here and apply it to other currencies potentially impacted by an easy money policy, such as the Russian ruble or the Brazilian real.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets-economy/083116/why-gold-not-hedge-against-dollar.asp