美聯儲官員Lael Brainard在週一表達了強硬的鴿派態度，她認為美聯儲應該放緩腳步，等待合適的加息時機。
市場觀察網一直期待著耶倫的講話。一些人認為耶倫會轉變態度，發出九月加息的信號。
但是Brainard態度堅定，她表示美聯儲必須保持寬松的狀態，以應對低增長、低通脹的環境。這種經濟環境已使歐洲和日本備受折磨。
道瓊斯工業指數回升了200餘點，讓投資者們松了一口氣，因為九月加息信號的風險已經過去了。
依照聯邦基金期貨的走勢，九月加息的可能性已由19%降至11%。
但是專家提醒，九月加息的可能性仍然存在。
原美聯儲官員、現Evercore ISI 副總裁Krishna Guha說：“聯邦政策委員會的内部讨論可能要結束了，但我們仍有揮之不去的擔憂。如果鴿派和鷹派仍舊勢均力敵，那麼優勢便會轉向鷹派，從而彌補先前的長久等待。”
分析家指出，Brainard的演講表明了她的強硬態度，如果美聯儲決定加息，她會立刻出言反對。
Amherst Pierpont Securities的首席經濟學家Steve Stanley認為Brainard“鴿”得太過了。
他說：“Brainard今天的演講表明，在下週的加息會議上，她絕對不會投支持票。”
當問及以何理由反對時，Brainard大笑表示，最好的方法就是闡明她的觀點。
Brainard說：“意料之外的疲軟需求比意料之外的強勢帶來的風險更大。這種‘不對稱’的風險需要以更謹慎的政策調整來應對。”
她補充道：“在未來的幾個月中，政策的腳步需要更細致的評估。”
Brainard的一席話受到了很多人的關註，因為一旦希拉裡在十一月競選成功，Brainard很有可能成為下一任財政部長。Brainard在比爾·克林頓白宮就職，隨後又擔任過財政部的高級職務。
Brainard的講話是加息會議之前的最後一次官員講話。
巴克萊銀行首席美國經濟學家Michael Gapen等分析家推測，Brainard可能是在利用演講向鷹派轉移，表明九月加息的可能性正在增加。
反過來講，Brainard將鴿派堅持穩定利率的最佳理由都整理了出來。
這位美聯儲官員表示，通脹調整不足比調整過量更值得擔心。
她說：“雖然勞動力市場表現強勢，但通脹壓力的缺失使得先發制人的緊縮政策立不住腳。”
海外的反通脹壓力和疲軟的需求將繼續影響著美國的經濟前景。
Fed’s Brainard calls for continued ‘prudence’ in interest-rate policy
Federal Reserve Gov. Lael Brainard on Monday made a forceful dovish case for holding rates steady as the U.S. central bank prepares to meet.
Markets has been anticipating Yellen’s remarks. Some thought she might move to the center and signal a rate hike in September.
But Brainard stuck to her guns, saying the U.S. central bank must stay accommodative to guard against the low-growth, low-inflation environment that bedevils Europe and Japan.
Markets DJIA, +1.32% breathed a sigh of relief and rallied by more than 200 points because the risk that she might have agreed to signal a September rate hike had passed.
The probability of a rate hike in September fell to 11% from 19%, according to changes in Fed funds futures.
But experts warmed a September rate hike couldn't be ruled out.
“The debate within the Fed policy committee is likely to be close and we retain a lingering concern that internal committee dynamics may mean that this time if there is a tie on the merits, the tie would go to the hawks rather than the doves, as payback for past patience,” said Krishna Guha, a former Fed official and now vice chairman of Evercore ISI.
Analysts noted that Brainard’s remarks strongly suggest she would likely dissent if the Fed decided to move rates higher.
Steve Stanley, chief economist of Amherst Pierpont Securities, said Brainard was “over the top dovish.”
“Based on her speech today, Brainard will certainly not be arguing for or voting for a rate hike next week,” he added.
Asked about a possible dissent, Brainard laughed and the best she can do is explain her views.
Brainard said the economy faces greater risk from unexpected weakness in demand rather than unexpected strength, This “asymmetry” in risks “counsels prudence in the removal of policy accommodation,” she said, in a speech to The Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
The policy path can continue to be assessed “in the months ahead,” she added.
See: Recap of live blog of Brainard’s Q&A
Brainard’s remarks are also closely watched because she has been touted as a possible Treasury Secretary if Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton wins the election in November. Brainard worked in the Bill Clinton White House and then held a top post at the Treasury Department under President Barack Obama before moving to the Fed.
Read: Clinton Treasury Secretary contender could send key signal about crucial Fed meeting. Brainard’s comments are the last word from a Fed official before the meeting in 10 days.
Some analysts like Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays, had speculated that Brainard might use her speech to move toward the hawks, sending a message of unity on the Fed and increase the possibility of a September rate hike.
Instead, Brainard marshaled all of the best arguments the doves have for holding rates steady at the Fed’s meeting on Sept. 20-21.
The Fed governor said there are reasons to be more concerned about inflation undershooting than overshooting.
The lack of inflation pressure to date even though the labor market has been strong “makes the case to tighten policy pre-emptively is less compelling,” she said.
And disinflation pressure and weak demand from abroad will continue to weigh on the U.S. outlook for some time, the Fed governor said.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-brainard-calls-for-continued-prudence-in-interest-rate-policy-2016-09-12