為什麼強勢貨幣像燙手山芋

 Charles Bovaird  2016年9月13日

貨幣強勢對國家和政策制定者都是一個重大的挑戰。雖然貨幣強勢有一定的好處，但是也能使一個國家的商品和服務比弱勢貨幣國家的商品和服務更加昂貴。因為這種情況利弊參半，擁有強勢貨幣可能很容易引起很多争議，這使得政策制定者很難抉擇。

出口和強勢貨幣

如果一個國家貨幣強勢，該國的居民就能以相對便宜的價格購買以其他國家貨幣定價的商品和服務。然而，一個國家的貨幣相對其他貨幣升值也會使其出口遭受損失，因為對國外買家來說其商品價格將會上漲。出口是外國貨幣流入一個國家的主要途徑，因此出口下降將會引發重大的經濟問題。

央行政策

一個能影響貨幣價值的主要變量是央行政策，當央行改變金融政策時，很容引起顯著的匯率波動。

在2007到2009年金融危機之後的幾年中，許多中央銀行都採取了激進的貨幣政策刺激經濟的增長。這些央行將基準利率降低到歷史最低點並購買了數以萬億計的美元計價資產。

美聯儲將利率降低到歷史最低點並建立了三個獨立的債券購買計劃，最後一個債券購買計劃在2014年10月結束。美聯儲在其他國家央行之前結束了量化寬松政策，因為美國經濟的增長比其他國家要快的多。

一個在美聯儲停止之後還繼續進行債券購買計劃的金融機構是日本央行。2016年7月，日本央行宣佈不僅要繼續其固定收益證券的購買，而且還將購買股票交易基金的金額從3.3萬億增加到6萬億日元。市場參與者的反應是相對其他主要貨幣推高日元，這樣的發展使日本政策制定者非常不快並破壞了該國出口商品的潛在吸引力。

政策趨勢

在日本央行的聲明發佈之後，許多國家的央行都緊隨其後，採取了更多的激進貨幣政策。以澳大利亞聯儲為例，在2016年八月將基準利率削減到歷史最低的1.5%。在決定這一政策的會議上曾提到：“很有可能許多中央銀行都會進行進一步的刺激”並建議澳大利亞聯儲做出這一決定，其目的是採取進一步措施抵制澳元的升值。

英格蘭銀行8月也宣佈將進行貨幣政策調整，該銀行表示這樣做的原因是為了降低任何因退出歐盟遇到的經濟問題出現的風險。因此，英格蘭銀行增加了量化寬松的力度、降低了利率並承諾投入1000億英鎊資金幫助借貸。

日本央行聲明發佈之後許多央行都開始迅速加強貨幣刺激的現象使央行政策看起來是互相依存的。此外，歐洲央行主席馬裡奧·德拉基在2016年6月的歐洲央行峰會上表示這些中央銀行應當統一他們的貨幣政策。他強調多樣化的貨幣政策不僅僅會引起外匯市場的匯率波動，還將影響資金流動，尤其是流向新興市場的資金。因此，他建議中央銀行共同工作獲得相同的標準。

要點

擁有強勁貨幣會使國家和政策制定者都遭遇困難的局面。這樣的局面可能因降低該國出口商品的吸引力引起經濟困難。這些挑戰在經濟苦難時期的危害更加巨大。上文的例子已經表明，許多國家都不想擁有強勢貨幣。

Why Having a Strong Currency Is Like Holding a Hot Potato

By Charles Bovaird | September 13, 2016 — 9:00 AM EDT

Having a strong currency can prove challenging for nations and their policymakers. While a robust currency has its benefits, it also makes a country’s goods and services more expensive relative to those denominated in less expensive currencies. Because such a situation creates winners and losers, having a strong currency can easily provoke a contentious situation that is difficult for policymakers to traverse.

Exports and a Strong Currency

If a nation has a strong currency, its consumers can purchase goods and services denominated in foreign currencies less expensively. However, as a country's currency appreciates relative to others, its exports can suffer as they become more expensive to foreign buyers. Exports represent the flow of foreign money into a country, so decreasing them could create significant economic headwinds.

Central Bank Policy

One major variable that can impact currency values is central bank policy, and when these financial institutions opt to harness differing policy prescriptions, it can easily provoke notable fluctuations in foreign exchange rates.

In the years following the financial crisis of 2007-2009, a wide range of central banks leveraged aggressive monetary policy in an effort to fuel more robust expansion. These financial institutions cut benchmark interest rates to record lows and purchased trillions of dollars' worth of assets.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates close to all-time lows and harnessed three separate bond-purchase programs, with the final one concluding in October 2014. The Fed eliminated its quantitative easing (QE) before the central banks of other countries, as the U.S. economy grew more quickly than that of other developed nations.

One financial institution that kept up its bond purchases after the Fed ceased these transactions was the Bank of Japan (BOJ). In July 2016, the BOJ announced it would not only continue to buy fixed-income securities but also step up its purchases of equity-traded funds from 3.3 trillion yen to 6 trillion yen. Market participants responded by pushing the yen higher relative to other major currencies, a development that displeased Japanese policymakers and potentially undermined the appeal of the nation’s exports.

Policy Trends

Many central banks followed suit after the BOJ announcement, taking steps to create more aggressive monetary policy. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), for example, cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low of 1.5% in August 2016. The minutes for the policy meeting where this move was decided mentioned that “there was a reasonable likelihood of further stimulus by a number of the major central banks” and suggested the RBA make this policy move primarily with the intention of taking steps to fend off a climbing value for the Australian dollar.

The Bank of England (BOE) also announced changes to monetary policy in August, stating it wanted to help mitigate any headwinds the nation’s economy would encounter following the Brexit. As a result, the BOE increased QE, lowered interest rates and committed 100 billion pounds in an effort to help improve lending.

The raft of central banks quickly making efforts to intensify monetary stimulus following the BOJ announcement has made the policy of central banks seem interdependent. In addition, Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), stated during a June 2016 ECB forum that these financial institutions should align their monetary policies. He emphasized that diverging monetary policies could not only provoke volatility in foreign exchange markets but also impact capital flows, particularly those going into emerging markets. As a result, he suggested central banks work together to obtain alignment, meaning “a shared diagnosis of the root causes of the challenges that affect us all; and a shared commitment to found our domestic policies on that diagnosis."

Key Takeaways

Having a strong currency can create a difficult situation for both nations and their policymakers. Situations such as these can create economic headwinds by reducing the appeal of a country’s exports. These challenges can prove even more harmful during times of economic weakness. In these instances, many nations are loathing to have a strong currency.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex-currencies/091316/why-having-strong-currency-holding-hot-potato.asp