I will only enter when the MACD makes a pullback and give a trend continue signal. 200SMA is only about 20 pips above 1.3000. Not worth it I would say.
The setup starts to look promising. We are however just above the 89SMA which can turn out to be support. I will rahter wait for the continuation pattern for a long to occur or another down candle will confirm the downmove. There are plenty of chances. Be patience.
As you can see. Wait for it. No need to rush it. There is plenty good trades.
Experience
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A wealthy old lady decides to go on a photo safari in Africa, taking her faithful, elderly poodle named Cuddles, along for the company.
One day the old poodle starts chasing butterflies and before long, Cuddles discovers that hes lost. Wandering about, he notices a leopard heading rapidly in his direction with the intention of having lunch.
The old poodle thinks, "Oh, oh! Im in deep doo-doo now!" Noticing some bones on the ground close by, he immediately settles down to chew on the bones with his back to the approaching cat. Just as the leopard is about to leap the old poodle exclaims loudly, "Boy, that was one delicious leopard! I wonder if there are any more around here?"
Hearing this, the young leopard halts his attack in mid-strike, a look of terror comes over him and he slinks away into the trees. "Whew!", says the leopard, "That was close! That old poodle nearly had me!"
Meanwhile, a monkey who had been watching the whole scene from a nearby tree, figures he can put this knowledge to good use and trade it for protection from the leopard. So off he goes, but the old poodle sees him heading after the leopard with great speed, and figures that something must be up.
The monkey soon catches up with the leopard, spills the beans and strikes a deal for himself with the leopard.
The young leopard is furious at being made a fool of and says, "Here, monkey, hop on my back and see whats going to happen to that conniving canine!
Now, the old poodle sees the leopard coming with the monkey on his back and thinks, "What am I going to do now?", but instead of running, the dog sits down with his back to his attackers, pretending he hasnt seen them yet, and just when they get close enough to hear, the old poodle says...
"Wheres that @##### monkey? I sent him off an hour ago to bring me another leopard!
Moral of this story....
Dont mess with old f @ rts...age and skill will always overcome youth and treachery! Bullsh # t and brilliance only come with age and experience.
When the price is trending it normally breaks through the 89SMA and then pulls back to the 21EMA and then when it continues it could be the start of a strong trend.
Dont try to take every signal the MACD is given. When there is none on the EurUsd or the GbpUsd we jump to other pairs and then we are actually looking for a trade and it is not going to be long and we will find one. You must not look for a trade. If the system does not have one there is not one.
Stay with the currencies you are fimiliar with.
The facts are in front of me therefore I will do this and that
I call the moving averages highway lanes. Each define a certain speed. The 200SMA very slow, 89SMA slow, 21EMA mediumfast and the 8EMA very fast. If you look at the chart above you will notice that the speed of the market was fast to very fast so that pricelevel wont stop or slow down the price.
When the price is finding support on the 89SMA twice in a row the speed is slow etc.
Currently the speed of the EurUsd is slow to very very slow as it is around the 200SMA and 365EMA lane
The price then tend to hoover around the support an resistance levels untill the speed changes.
When the price move through the 89SMA and break a trendline and pulls back towards the 21EMA and then continue the trend it is a sign that we might be in a real trend. The 8EMA shows that the price is below on a down trend which indicate we are in the very fast lane. If you go long now on a MACD signal it would on a retracement to inbetween the 8EMA and 21EMA. Check the R:R ratio.
Someone aked me about the live trades I made with this system. The only live ones I made with this system so far are the ones I have done and described in this thread and the live one in the manual. There were one made the 29 Jan 2007 16:00(GMT) on the GBP with gain 109 pips I did not describe as the thread was just introduced. My backtesting showed over 300pips per month. My live trades are going to be described on the thread as I am doing it. I only do the EurUsd and the GbpUsd and entries will be on 16:00 , 20:00 and 0:00 GMT time as I cannot enter at other times due to working conditions.
If you are fimiliar with other currencies you are welcome to enter those and give as some feedback and charts for discussion. I am not going to get involve in prodicting what may be as I have found that people act upon those thoughts with live accounts.
I believe in the rule that the facts are in front of me therefore I will do this and that. I will only act if the MACD shows a signal and I have worked out the probabilities and only if that is in my favour will I enter.
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