4小時MACD 外匯策略

附錄三

STOPLOSS

I haven’t discussed the field of stoplosses in the PDF document as it is not a matter of pattern and or standard way. There are no definite rules as to where stoplosses should be placed.

This is the major cause for people loosing money. If stops wont be hit nobody will loose money. I just feel that to little time is spend on discussing stoplosses. We very easily come up with a strategy in detail but not a stoploss strategy. I have done the same giving very exact instructions in the PDF document as to the entries and profit targets but nothing on stoplosses. The question is now----- WHY??????.

I deliberately did not give any details as to stoplosses as that depends on each individual’s profile. For some people a 20 pip possible loss is just to much to handle while other’s can handle 50 pips. The question is how much capital do you have. If you risk 50 pips how much in percentage is that of your total capital. For anyone to expect trading over a long period of time it is of essential importance to risk as little as possible of capital. The excepted rule is not more than 3%-5% of capital.

If your capital is $1000 then your stoploss should not be more than 3% of that which equal $30 or about 3 pips.. Now that does not make sense on a leverage account. That is why trading a mini account(1 pip = $1) with $1000 makes it ten times better and the 3% risk now remains 30$ but it now becomes 30 pips. Some have it that 5% on a system that gives 65+% correct deals is also acceptable. Thus we can risk between 30 and 50 pips on a mini account of $1000 capital and will have a chance to trade over an extended period of time that when we hit that 3-5 losses in a row we will not be wiped out and will still have capital to recover.

Now comes the question of where to set my stoploss when the MACD gives a signal. If your profile (3%-5% of capital) only allows you a 40 pip stoploss and the most resent low/high or two to three bars back or the trendline is more than that away you simply skip the trade. I have given a way to enter at three different levels to reduce the amount of pips risk in the PDF document. You can use that to make a 50 pip risk to about 35 pips overall. That is also done just to make sure that you stay in the business in the future.

One does not necessary have to have all your capital in your account with your broker. You might have $10000 capital of which $3000 is with your broker and the rest in your own bank account. You can than calculate your risk on $10000 as long as that money is available for the Forex. The moment you use of that money ( for personal use) your risk in terms of pips reduces as well because your capital is less.

When the MACD gives a signal it all depends how far away is the support and resistance levels. If it is more than your risk profile just let it passes by. This is how I do it. My risk profile allows for 50 pips max but I don’t like using more than 43. I don’t use equal numbers as you will notice how many times it exactly test those levels. I uses 23,28,33,38,43. Put your stops below the resent support/resistance.

The problem with most people is that they cannot afford 3 to 4 losses in a row as it will wipe them out. Any system has it bad patches. The MACD I believe can and will give 3 losses in a row sometimes. That means 150 pips could be on the cards. Can you still go on after such a loss. If not I suggest you save money till you can survive such a run of bad deals. I have made provision for 200 pips loss in a bad run.

Hope this helped in any sense.

Phillip

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