經濟數據對市場的影響及對應方法

通常而言，每月的經濟數據，都會提前一到兩週公佈預期——這些預期，都是各大通訊社對經濟學家或業界做調查的結果，各通訊社間的結果可能不盡相同…

由於市場的占有率及調查方法，目前市場都默認路透通訊社(Reuters) 的預期中間數，作為預測數字的參考。

相信大家都知道，要在市場生存、賺錢，時間和信息的獲取，是各方投資者所希望的，這種共同的期望，就做成了一些我們所謂的「提前消化」的現像…

問題是，為什幺不是每次數據公佈前，都出現「提前消化」的現像呢？

這是因為，1、市場的焦點，2、數據重要性的次序，3、當時市場價格，是否因為前期的發展而出現了過份的價值上升或下跌，這些都是影響數據行情，會不會出現提前消化的現像。

舉得例子，今年上半年，美元回升超過了11%，其中就包含了「提前消化」的現像，這是為什幺明天美國都幾乎鐵定加息了，直到今天，美元還不肯進一步上升的原因。

另一方面，大家都知道，做外匯的，都不是做單一貨幣，大家目前所做的外匯市場，其實是叫作「美匯」的，即是說，主要貨幣都跟美元做匯兌交易(或以美元作為報價參考) ，所以，當我們要看美元的走勢時，也不得不個別因應各種貨幣國的經濟發展，在此銷彼長的經濟表現下，也會影響到匯價的表現…

在做數據行情的時候，我們也要留心可能出現的提前消化現像所做成的「消息入市，證實平倉」的發展…

很多時侯，大家都會奇怪，為什幺明顯是利好的數據，會出現利反的現像呢？

原因就是有市場的預期心理，造成了「提前消化」的現像，而實際數據的「市場價值」，又都已經反映在現價水平了，然後，市場就會因應情況，開始出現平倉現像——到底平倉量是多少，還要視乎市場對未來一段短時間的「預期心理」…

另一方面，數據價值——數據可能帶來的波動幅度(這個可能是我自創的) ，到底是多少？

是100點，是200點，還是300點？

這要視乎提前消化的程度而定…

另一方面，如果事前未有出現明顯的提前消化現像，則震撼效果(Shocking Effect) 就會起到明顯的作用——真實數據跟預期值相差越大，震撼效果就越高！！

在這裡，有兩個重要的問題，一是我們如何確定有沒有出現「提前消化效應」，二是我們如何確定數據價值？

我將在下期——實戰部份作出相對應的解答。

附?1

此?D表是我??人根??????Y料?作，大家可以?⒖迹????D表化以後的?????????看?R?r?D表，?K?]有??櫻?黝}要看的，就是??荨?/p>

???r?註明，??…

附?2.1

本附?引用自CNN?站英文原文，大家可以?⒖迹?绻??蚍?g的，?在翻?後?魃?恚?栽旄ａ?碚摺?/p>

??人???蝗杖?孀鲞@??翻?，??…

FR - Reuters Manufacturing PMI

How does this affect the market?

Published by CDAF/Reuters, the manufacturing survey is a composite indicator designed to provide an overall view of conditions in the manufacturing economy. It is based on monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in industrial companies.

法????吠幹缪u造?I?褓??理指??/p>

由法???I?展?f??奧吠幹缪u作，?是一???ρu造?I的?合?查指?擔?莢谔峁┮???ρu造?I???幕?菊雇??@???底只??Ω髌?I?褓?管理人?T派?的??卷?查?R集而成，?K每月公佈一次。

EMU - Unemployment Rate

How does this affect the market?

The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force.

?W盟——失?I率

失?I率是???I?人?抵械氖?I部份，以百份比?示出?怼?/p>

GB - CIPS Manufacturing PMI

How does this affect the market?

Published by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply (CIPS), the manufacturing survey is a composite indicator designed to provide an overall view of conditions in the manufacturing economy. It is based on monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in industrial companies.

英????IPS?造?I?褓??理指??/p>

英??褓??理指?擔?怯捎??卦S?褓?及供??f??CIPS) 制?，?是一???ρu造?I的?合?查指?擔?莢谔峁┮???ρu造?I???幕?菊雇??@???底只??Ω髌?I?褓?管理人?T派?的??卷?查?R集而成，?K每月公佈一次。

US - Consumer Sentiment

How does this affect the market?

A survey of consumer attitudes concerning both the present situation as well as expectations regarding economic conditions conducted by the University of Michigan. Five hundred consumers are surveyed each month. A preliminary survey is usually reported about the second Friday of the month while a more complete survey is reported two weeks later. The level of consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending.

The pattern in consumer attitudes and spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. This balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Consumer sentiment did shift down in tandem with the equity market between 2000 and 2002. Consumer spending

accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so the markets are always dying to know what consumers are up to and how they might behave in the near future. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. With this in mind, its easy to see how this index of consumer attitudes gives insight to the direction of the economy. Just note that changes in consumer sentiment and retail sales dont move in tandem month by month.

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